Abstract: A method executed on a computer for modeling expected behavior is described. The method includes scoring records of a dataset that is segmented into a plurality of data segments using a plurality of models and converting scores of the records into probability estimates. Two of the techniques described for converting scores into probability estimates are a technique that transforms scores into the probabilities estimates based on an equation and a binning technique that establishes a plurality of bins and maps records based on a score for the record to one of the plurality of bins.

Abstract: Version testing in database based marketing includes building a model for each version, based on a random test sample of potential contacts selected from a data set for each version, scoring the dataset of records of potential contacts using each version's model to produce model scores for each version and converting the model scores for each version into response rate predictions. Techniques to represent the results of scoring the dataset are described.