Abstract: A ballastless track roadbed damage forewarning method considering uncertainty includes the following steps. Step 1: counting roadbed material parameters and precipitation; Step 2: establishing a FLAC-PFC model of a ballastless track roadbed and calibrating mesoscopic parameters of a roadbed surface layer; Step 3: generating a lognormal random field of particle contact friction coefficients and assigning it to particle contact nodes of the roadbed surface layer; Step 4: perform sampling on the precipitation and adjusting a fluid domain of the roadbed surface layer; Step 5: determining a worst spatial correlation distance in the random field; and Step 6: calculating a damage probability pf of the roadbed surface layer under the worst spatial correlation distance; outputting alarm information when pf exceeds an alarm threshold, otherwise, quitting. The method monitors and gives early warning of damage to the roadbed surface layer under dynamic loads, ensuring driving safety.

Abstract: A ballastless track roadbed damage forewarning method considering uncertainty includes the following steps. Step 1: counting roadbed material parameters and precipitation; Step 2: establishing a FLAC-PFC model of a ballastless track roadbed and calibrating mesoscopic parameters of a roadbed surface layer; Step 3: generating a lognormal random field of particle contact friction coefficients and assigning it to particle contact nodes of the roadbed surface layer; Step 4: perform sampling on the precipitation and adjusting a fluid domain of the roadbed surface layer; Step 5: determining a worst spatial correlation distance in the random field; and Step 6: calculating a damage probability pf of the roadbed surface layer under the worst spatial correlation distance; outputting alarm information when pf exceeds an alarm threshold, otherwise, quitting. The method monitors and gives early warning of damage to the roadbed surface layer under dynamic loads, ensuring driving safety.