Abstract: A global demand forecast is generated for a product group in a computer system, where the product group comprises a plurality of products of a predefined genre. A historical relationship between an aggregate of product level demand forecasts and actual demand for the products in the product group, and the global demand forecast are used to adjust a critical ratio employed to generate a product level demand forecast in the computer system for a product in the product group. The critical ratio expresses a probability that the product level demand forecast will exceed an actual demand for a corresponding product.

Abstract: Various embodiments of the present invention are provided to adjust a product demand forecast. In one embodiment, a value is determined of an aggregation of a plurality of product level demand forecasts for a respective plurality of products in a product group at a desired value of a critical ratio. The critical ratio expresses a probability that a forecast will exceed a demand for a given product. A ratio is determined of the aggregation of the product level demand forecasts to a global demand forecast for the product group in the computer system. The ratio is verified as to whether it is congruous with a historical ratio of past aggregate product level demand forecasts to actual product demand.