Abstract: A device and computer-implemented method for predicting a state of a technical system. A state of the technical system is detected and a time series is provided which comprises values which characterize a course of the detected state of the technical system. Using a learning-based model for predicting the short-term behavior of the technical system, a first value for the prediction is determined as a function of the values of the time series, and, using a physical model for predicting the long-term behavior of the technical system, a second value for the prediction is determined as a function of the values of the time series, and wherein a value of the prediction is determined as a function of the first value for the prediction and the second value for the prediction.

Abstract: A device and computer-implemented method for predicting a state of a technical system. A state of the technical system is detected. A time series is provided which includes values which characterize a course of the detected state of the technical system. Using a first filter, first filtered values for predicting the short-term behavior of the technical system are determined as a function of the values of the time series. Using a second filter, second filtered values for predicting the long-term behavior of the technical system are determined as a function of the values of the time series. A first value for the prediction is determined as a function of the filtered first values. A second value for the prediction is determined as a function of the filtered second values. A value of the prediction is determined as a function of the first and second values for the prediction.

Abstract: A method for ascertaining a time characteristic of a measured variable adjustable by an actuator, wherein a time characteristic of a control variable is applied to the actuator, wherein the ascertaining is effected by means of a Gaussian process state model of the behavior of the actuator, wherein the time characteristic of the measured variable of the actuator is ascertained on the basis of a parameterizable family of functions, wherein in the parameterizable family of functions a time dependency of a later latent state, in particular ascertained using a transfer function, of the actuator on an earlier latent state of the actuator and an earlier control variable of the actuator is the same as the applicable dependency of the Gaussian process state model.

Abstract: A method for devising an optimum control policy of a controller for controlling a system includes optimizing at least one parameter that characterizes the control policy. A Gaussian process model is used to model expected dynamics of the system. The optimization optimizes a cost function which depends on the control policy and the Gaussian process model with respect to the at least one parameter. The optimization is carried out by evaluating at least one gradient of the cost function with respect to the at least one parameter. For an evaluation of the cost function a temporal evolution of a state of the system is computed using the control policy and the Gaussian process model. The cost function depends on an evaluation of an expectation value of a cost function under a probability density of an augmented state at time steps.

Abstract: A method for devising an optimum control policy of a controller for controlling a system includes optimizing at least one parameter that characterizes the control policy. A Gaussian process model is used to model expected dynamics of the system. The optimization optimizes a cost function which depends on the control policy and the Gaussian process model with respect to the at least one parameter. The optimization is carried out by evaluating at least one gradient of the cost function with respect to the at least one parameter. For an evaluation of the cost function a temporal evolution of a state of the system is computed using the control policy and the Gaussian process model. The cost function depends on an evaluation of an expectation value of a cost function under a probability density of an augmented state at time steps.