Abstract: Generally, a method and apparatus for making a prediction-based market including unconventional prediction options to market participants includes determining a prediction framework that includes a plurality of conditional scenarios. The method and apparatus includes calculating realization odds for each of the conditional scenarios using an approximation calculation technique and via an interface, receiving a plurality of predictions associated with selected conditional scenarios, each prediction having an associated value and building the prediction-based market using the predictor. The method and apparatus further includes updating realization odds for each of the conditional scenarios in the prediction framework using the approximation calculation technique and settling the predictions based at least on the updated realization odds.