Abstract: Methods, systems, and apparatus for receiving, by a wildfire modeling system, region of interest (ROI) data representative of pixels that represent a geographical ROI, generating, by the wildfire modeling system, transition probabilities for each pixel in the ROI data, determining, by the wildfire modeling system, chained probabilities along each path in a set of paths within the ROI, adjusting, by the wildfire modeling system, chained probabilities based on a likelihood of ignition of a starting pixel represented in the ROI data, combining, by the fire modeling system, the adjusted chained probabilities to provide connectivity data that represents respective likelihood of spread of a wildfire from the starting pixel to each other pixel within the ROI, and displaying a connectivity map that graphically represents connectivity data of each pixel within the ROI.