Abstract: An installed product includes mechanical components and associated sensors. A computer is programmed with an operational optimization model for the installed product, including modeling of the mechanical components and sensors. The computer is also programmed with a probability estimation model that provides an estimate of a difference measure related to input and output of the installed product. Sensor data is received, which had been generated during operation of the installed product. Output is generated from the operational optimization model based on the received sensor data. Output is generated from the probability estimation model based at least in part on the output from the operational optimization model. At least one installed product component is modified based at least in part on the output from the probability estimation model.