Abstract: A system, method and computer readable medium capable of improving the efficiency and accuracy of oilfield production forecasting operations is described herein. Measured oilfield production data may be utilized to generate estimates for the mean, covariance and noise. Refined estimates for the mean and the covariance may be generated using a Bayesian probabilistic updating algorithm. The refined estimates may be utilized to generate an oilfield production forecast having a refined exponential decline curve associated with the measured production data and one or more uncertainty designations.