Abstract: Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on a computer storage medium, for adjusting distribution criteria of digital component in one or more geographical regions. Methods include obtaining data quantifying digital component distribution in a first and a second region during a first predetermined period of time. A machine learning model is generated to predict a first outcome quantifying digital component distribution in the first region based on a correlation between digital component distribution in a first and a second region. Data is obtained that quantifies digital component distribution in the first region during a second predetermined period of time and a predicted second outcome is generated that quantifies digital component distribution during the second predetermined period of time. The predicted second outcome is compared with the digital component distribution in the first region and distribution criteria is adjusted for the first region based on the comparison.

Abstract: Techniques for preparing datasets for geo experiments and improving accuracy of geo experiments are presented herein. The system can access a dataset of a plurality of geographic pairs. Additionally, the system can calculate a first outcome estimate based on a difference in response data and a difference in input data for a first geographic pair. Moreover, the system can calculate a plurality of experimental uncertainty estimates associated with the plurality of geographic pairs during an experimental time interval. The system can access historical data associated with the plurality of geographic pairs. Furthermore, the system can determine a beta value and a trim rate that reduces a sum of the plurality estimates. Subsequently, the system can remove, based on the first outcome estimate and the beta value, the first geographic pair from the plurality of geographic pairs to generate the first subset of geographic pairs.

Abstract: Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on a computer storage medium, for creating an initial treatment group that includes geographic regions; creating a matching control group for the initial treatment group; creating an updated treatment group that includes the geographic regions from the initial treatment group and an additional geographic region that provides a specified level of increase to a model quality metric; iteratively creating each of i) an updated matching control group based on the updated treatment group and ii) an additional updated treatment group based on the updated matching control group until a stop condition occurs; receiving input specifying a treatment group size; and in response to receiving the input, conducting the experiment using i) the updated treatment group that includes a number of geographic regions that matches the treatment group size and ii) the updated matching control group created for that updated treatment group.