Abstract: Described are techniques for determining measures of risk through a medium fidelity, fast running flight risk analysis system, for evaluating risk of a launch or reentry. The method may include receiving trajectory information associated with a planned flight, wherein the trajectory information comprises a series of trajectory vectors, each trajectory vector comprising time information, position information and velocity information. Identification of consequences of interest, and an extent of a region of interest for potential hazard areas may also be received. The method may include determining an upper bound of expected consequence for each population center based on a number of people in each population center subject to different consequences, determining one or more collective risk metrics for each population center, and a collective risk metric for all population centers.

Abstract: Described are techniques for determining measures of risk through a medium fidelity, fast running flight risk analysis system, for evaluating risk of a launch or reentry. The method may include receiving trajectory information associated with a planned flight, wherein the trajectory information comprises a series of trajectory vectors, each trajectory vector comprising time information, position information and velocity information. Identification of consequences of interest, and an extent of a region of interest for potential hazard areas may also be received. The method may include determining an upper bound of expected consequence for each population center based on a number of people in each population center subject to different consequences, determining one or more collective risk metrics for each population center, and a collective risk metric for all population centers.