Abstract: The present invention is directed to a method of modeling a complex system, the model produced by such a method, and a method of optimizing a complex system by optimizing such a model. The first step in the modeling method is to identify the activities that comprise the process. Measurable drivers for each activity are identified. The costs associated with each driver are identified as fixed and, where appropriate, variable components. Each activity is then represented as a function of its driver's cost components. Relationships between the drivers that are relevant to more than one activity are derived. A function that represents the process is built using the derived relationships. The model (function) thus produced is an expression of the entire process in terms of variables that are drivers for more than one activity within the process. Optimizing the modeled process is accomplished by optimizing the model constructed as described above for certain selected objective(s).

Abstract: A model to predict the quality of a lubricant base stock for use in a plurality of products having a plurality of viscosities. The compositional model is based on a quantitative analysis of key compositional parameters and performance criteria for the plurality of products representing the plurality of viscosities. The compositional model provides a method for making a lubricant base stock to be used in manufacturing a lubricant for a particular application from a refinery stream wherein the lubricant base stock and the refinery stream are characterizable according to a plurality of compositional components common to the base stock and to the refinery stream. This method begins with determining the acceptable region and adjusting for viscosity variations.

Abstract: A model to predict the quality of a lubricant base stock for use in a plurality of products having a plurality of viscosities. The compositional model is based on a quantitative analysis of key compositional parameters and performance criteria for the plurality of products representing the plurality of viscosities. The compositional model predicts whether the composition of a new lubricant base stock is similar or dissimilar to known lubricant base stock compositions that have previously passed or failed performance tests. New base stock compositions, then, are evaluated in light of base stocks that have demonstrated acceptable performance in a plurality of products. The compositional model also predicts whether a combination of refinery streams can be blended for use in manufacturing a lubricant base stock.