Abstract: A prediction method for formation water yield of carbonate gas reservoir is provided, which includes: S1, constructing an initial prediction model for a formation water yield of a carbonate gas reservoir; S2, collecting and pre-processing raw data; where the raw data is raw data of parameters of the initial prediction model, and the raw data further includes raw data of a permeability when the initial prediction model does not involve permeability; S3, performing, according to the pre-processed raw data, an uncertainty analysis and a dimension reduction process on the parameters of the initial prediction model; S4, constructing a target prediction model for the formation water yield of the carbonate gas reservoir according to a result of dimension reduction process; and S5, obtaining, according to the target prediction model for formation water yield of carbonate reservoir, a predictive probability solution of formation water yield by combining a result of uncertainty analysis.