Abstract: A method of estimating credit risk associated with a financial asset includes receiving data regarding the asset and corresponding to a first date; determining a parameter using received data and the amount of time between the first date and a second date, the parameter being based on a predetermined estimate of the predictive value of received data with regard to a possible adverse event associated with the asset on the second date; and determining a probability of the adverse event as a function of the parameter. A system for estimating credit risk associated with a financial asset includes memory configured to store received data regarding the asset and a processor coupled to the memory and operable to execute programmed instructions, wherein the programmed instructions are configured to determine the parameter and the probability of the adverse event as a function of the parameter.