Abstract: Techniques for capacity management in computing systems are disclosed herein. In one embodiment, a method includes analyzing data representing a number of enabled users or a number of provisioned users to determine whether the analyzed data represents an anomaly based on historical data. The method can also include upon determining that the data represents an anomaly, determining a conversion rate between a change in the number of enabled users or the number of provisioned users and a change in a number of active users of the computing service and deriving a future value of the number of active users of the computing service based on both the detected anomaly and the determined conversion rate. The method can further include allocating and provisioning an amount of the computing resource in the distributed computing system in accordance with the determined future value of the active users of the computing resource.