Abstract: A method for degradation modeling and lifetime prediction considering recoverable shock damages includes steps of: Step 1: collecting degradation data; Step 2: establishing a degradation model; Step 3: estimating the parameters; and Step 4: predicting lifetime and reliability. Advantages and effects of the present invention are: A) The method of the present invention takes into account the conditions under which the shock damage can be partially or fully recovered, improving the prediction accuracy of lifetime and reliability of products meeting such conditions. B) The method of the present invention considers the shock effects on product performance, which considers the shock effects on both the degradation rate and the degradation signal, wherein prediction method is more realistic and prediction accuracy is improved. C) Many conventional degradation models are special cases when some of the parameters to be estimated in the model of the present invention are zero.

Abstract: A degradation modeling and lifetime prediction method considering effective shocks includes steps of: first collecting degradation test data, then establishing a performance degradation model, and determining an environment or load changing rate threshold of a product subjected to effective shock based on the test data; estimating parameters in the model, and determining effective shock occurrence times based on the future environmental or load profile, and finally preforming lifetime and reliability prediction. Specific steps are as follows: step 1: collecting degradation test data; step 2: establishing a degradation model; step 3: determining an environment or load changing rate threshold; step 4: estimating the parameters; step 5: predicting the times that effective shocks occur; and step 6: performing reliability prediction.