SELECTING CONTENT FOR A USER
In one embodiment, a method includes accessing, by a computing device, at least a portion of a user profile that is based at least in part on historical data associated with a user and receiving, by a computing device, data indicative of a current state of the user from a remote system. The current state of the user is the user's current activity. The method also includes selecting, by a computing device, content by matching one or more attributes of the content to the portion of the user profile and the current state of the user and providing, by a computing device, the selected content for display to the user.
This application is a continuation of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/604,377, filed on 5 Sep. 2012, pending, which is a continuation of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/337,468, filed on 27 Dec. 2011, abandoned, which is a continuation of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 12/553,522, filed on 3 Sep. 2009, now U.S. Pat. No. 8,103,611, which is a division of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 11/074,157, filed on 7 Mar. 2005, now U.S. Pat. No. 7,603,331, which is a continuation of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 09/554,383, filed as PCT Patent Application No. PCT/US98/24339 on 13 Nov. 1998, now U.S. Pat. No. 6,871,186, and a continuation-in-part of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 08/970,359, filed on 14 Nov. 1997, now U.S. Pat. No. 6,236,978. The entire disclosures of each of the applications referenced above are incorporated herein by reference.
TECHNICAL FIELDThe present disclosure relates to a system and method for dynamic profiling of a user in one to one marketing applications.
OVERVIEWMany organizations collect historical data about every transaction that every customer performs with that organization. Such historical transactional data is useful in various one-to-one marketing applications, such as, e.g., shopping assistant application and dynamic Web site content presentation. A number of problems have been encountered in these marketing applications. One such problem relates to the creation of highly pertinent and comprehensible individual user profiles that are derived from the historical transactional data. In addition, it is also important to have the ability to utilize these user profiles when the marketing application obtains a current status of the user. If the user profiles are generated in a highly relevant and comprehensible manner with respect to a specific user, the applications would be able to understand that user's needs better and more efficiently serve that user.
There are two basic types of user profiles that can be generated—a “static” profile and a “dynamic” profile. The static profile contains all of the factual information of the user including, for example, demographic data (e.g., age, sex, address), psychographic data (e.g., personality traits and habits), purchasing preferences (e.g., what does the user purchase in an average week), etc. Static profiles are generated using conventional methods that are known to those of ordinary skill in the art.
Dynamic profiling information includes specific rules describing the user's behavior. For example, such rules may include: “whenever user X travels to France, user X often buys expensive wines in Paris” or “when user Y shops on a weekend and did not buy any groceries for at least 3 days, user Y usually purchases a large amount of groceries.” These rules can be generated with transactional data for each user using various rule generation methods that are generally known to those of ordinary skill in the art. For example, one such conventional rule generation method is implemented in a rule learning system which generates behavior rules for individual customers. (See T. Fawcett et al., “Combining Data Mining and Machine Learning for Effective User Profiling”, Proceedings of the KDD '96 Conference, 1996, pp. 8-13).
In order to obtain an extensive understanding of the user, it is desirable to build both static and dynamic profiles for that user. Although the generation of static profiles is generally straight-forward, generating dynamic profiles for a large number of users may present potential problems. Many transactional systems (e.g., airline reservations systems, credit card transactional systems and/or Web site management systems) generate a various number of transactions for each user. For example, some systems and/or applications may only generate a dozen transactions per each user, which may not be enough to construct a statistically significant and reliable set of rules for a specific user. Even if there are enough transactions to construct a statistically significant set of rules, these rules should still be verified for their pertinence to the user. Since there can be a large number of users, and since the rules generated for each user may not be reliable, there is a problem of verifying a large set of generated rules for the users. For example, in a typical system facilitating 5 million users and providing about 100 rules per user, approximately 500 million rules would have to be either stored or processed. Generally, many of these rules are either not useful or insignificant. Thus, due to the amount of these generated rules, a rule validation process becomes considerably complicated. Furthermore, checking the usefulness of these rules “by hand” becomes practically impossible.
Conventional systems have not successfully provided detailed solutions to constructing reliable dynamic profiles for the users. One such system (described in T. Fawcett et al., “Combining Data Mining and Machine Learning for Effective User Profiling”, Proceedings of the KDD '96 Conference, 1996) provides a limited generation of user's dynamic profiles. However, this conventional system does not provide a comprehensive method and system for analyzing a large number of dynamic rules, and thus does not provide adequate assistance for the user.
The system and method according to particular embodiments generate dynamic profiles and, thereafter, transforms the dynamic profiles for various users into aggregate rules. In particular, “similar” individual rules are compressed into a smaller number of aggregated rules. Because the total number of aggregate rules is substantially smaller than the total number of individual rules for all of the users, the aggregate rules can be examined manually by a human expert. This expert examines these aggregated rules and selects only rules based on the expert's preferences. Only the individual rules that correspond to the aggregated rules selected by the human expert are retained in the user's profiles. Since the selected aggregate rules were selected by the human expert, a creation of more accurate dynamic profiles is further assured. The system and method according to particular embodiments thus provide a more useful set of individual rules for each user.
The dynamic profiles generated with the system and method according to particular embodiments can be used in various systems (e.g., Personal Shopping Assistant and Personal Intelligent Digital Assistant) to provide better recommendations to the users as to which products and services each individual user should utilize. Accordingly, the user would be more satisfied with these systems and the suggestions that these systems provide to the user. In addition, Dynamic Web Content Presentation systems can include the system and method according to particular embodiments because the users will be provided with better quality profiles to facilitate the provision of more pertinent Web pages to the user visiting a particular Web site. Fraud detection systems may also include the system and method according to particular embodiments, thus providing higher quality user profiles which may facilitate better fraud detection. Other applications for the system and method according to particular embodiments are also conceivable to those of ordinary skill in the art.
In addition, the system and method according to particular embodiments utilizing the above-described rule compression method is not limited to a construction of pertinent dynamic profiles, and can be used in a vast variety of applications (e.g., construction of high quality association rules in data mining applications). Other usages of the system and method according to particular embodiments are also conceivable to one having ordinary skill in the art.
In another embodiment of the system and method according to particular embodiments, the user rules are validated using a processing device. These user rules are retrieved from a storage device. The user rules are then separated into at least one subset of a user set. Then, it is determined if particular rules of the at least one subset is one of acceptable, unacceptable and undecided based on a defined criteria. If the particular rules of at least one subset are acceptable, the particular rules of the at least one subset are provided to a corresponding user.
When constructing good dynamic profiles, validation is an important consideration. It is possible to construct dynamic profiles for individual customers using any existing data mining methods. For example, an example user rule may indicate that whenever a user buys milk in the evening, this user also buys onions. It is difficult to ascertain if this rule adequately describe the user's behavior. In fact, it may be a statistical coincidence. Therefore, it is preferable to allow the user (or a human expert) to examine groups of the user rules.
Certain example embodiments of example architectures, systems, apparatus, methods, and computer-readable medium according to the present disclosure can provide at least one recommendation to at least one of one or more users and one or more applications using multidimensional data. According to the example embodiments of the present disclosure, it is possible to access the multidimensional data which can define a multidimensional space defined by a Cartesian product of the dimensions. The multidimensional space can have at least three dimensions, and each of the dimensions can be capable of (i) providing variable information, and (ii) having a type that is different from a type of another one of the dimensions. It is also possible to retrieve information from data associated with the multidimensional space. Further, at least one recommendation can be generated based on the retrieved information. Further, according to certain example embodiments, at least one of the dimensions can include profiles.
FIGS. 4.1-4.2 show a detailed flow diagram of an example rule compression process according to particular embodiments.
FIGS. 9.1-9.2 show a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a process executed by the selective validation module (illustrated in
In many customer-related applications (e.g., banking, credit card, Internet marketing applications, etc.), user profiles for each user (or customer) are generated to better understand the user (e.g., user's purchasing trends, business travel locations, types of favorite restaurants, etc.). A flow diagram of an example process for building user profiles is illustrated in
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- CUST(Cust_ID, A1, A2 . . . Am),
where Cust_ID is a user identifier that provides an index value for locating a specific user in the CUST file. A1, A2 . . . Am are fields describing the characteristics of the user (e.g., sex, income, education, etc.).
- CUST(Cust_ID, A1, A2 . . . Am),
The dynamic profile is built in step 15. A dynamic profile consists of rules (or patterns) characterizing a user's behavior, e.g., “if user X shops in the evening on weekdays and purchases diapers, user X also buys beer”, “if user X shops on weekdays, user X usually buys a small number of items”, “if user X travels to New York on business, user X prefers to have lunches at expensive seafood restaurants.” The rules are derived from a set of transactions pertaining to a particular user. These transactions may be, for example, credit card transactions, airline reservations and Web site visit transactions, and are stored in the “TRANS” file which has the following format:
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- TRANS(Trans_ID, Cust_ID, C1, C2, . . . Cn)
where Trans_ID corresponds to a unique index key that identifies the transaction being performed by the user. Fields C1, C2, . . . Cn identify a particular transaction (e.g., date of transaction, time of transaction, amount spent, location of the transaction, etc.). The field “Cust_ID” corresponds to an index key pointing to a particular user having a respective record in the CUST file. Thus, the user performing a particular transaction can be identified. Other file formats can also be utilized, as can be understood by those having ordinary skill in the art. For example, the user-specific information can also be stored in several files rather than in a single CUST file (thus, the CUST file can be normalized by splitting the CUST file into several smaller files). Using different file formats does not affect the operability of the system and process according to particular embodiments. After the dynamic profile for a particular user is generated, this dynamic profile is validated in step 20.
- TRANS(Trans_ID, Cust_ID, C1, C2, . . . Cn)
After the validation of the dynamic profile, the static and dynamic profiles are combined to form a combined user profile in step 25. The following example information can be obtained from the TRANS file to be provided into the static profile when the static and dynamic profiles (the CUST and TRANS files) are combined: a) an average transaction amount for user X; b) user X's favorite brand of beer is, e.g., Heineken; c) user X shops mostly on weekends.
While it is relatively uncomplicated to construct user static profiles, it is much more difficult to construct quality dynamic profiles. Rules provided in the dynamic profile are generated for each user. Because a user may perform only a small number of transactions, the corresponding rules generated may be statistically insignificant, unreliable and irrelevant. In many systems (e.g, airline reservations systems, credit card transactional systems, or Web site usage systems), it is possible to have from as little as a few dozen to a few hundred transactions per each user. The rules generated with such amounts of data are often ineffective and insignificant.
The total number of generated rules can also be very large. For example, in a system serving 5 million customers and generating an average of 100 rules per user, a total number of generated rules can reach 500 million. Many of the 500 million generated rules are of questionable quality and usefulness. In order to filter the rules having such undesirable characteristics, a human expert must decide which dynamic rules should be stored and which dynamic rules should be discarded. It would be impossible for the human expert to manually check the usefulness of all 500 million rules.
Quality dynamic profiles are generated by validating dynamic rules generated using various rule induction methods. Ultimately, however, the human expert validates the machine-generated rules to determine their “usefulness” in various systems. Since most of the systems generate too many rules to be manually examined by human experts, the system and method according to particular embodiments facilitates compressing individual rules into “aggregated” rules. After the individual rules are compressed into the aggregated rules, the aggregated rules are evaluated by a human expert who selects only the rules that the expert believes are pertinent for the user. In addition, it is possible (in some applications) that the respective user can be such a human expert (and examining only the rules that are pertinent to the respective user).
A. Dynamic Profile Construction ProcedureIt can be assumed that user-specific rules have been already created using methods known to those having ordinary skill in the art. For example, individual user rules can be generated using an induction software system (e.g., “CART” Breiman et al., 1984; C4.5, Quinlan, 1993; or RL, Clearwater & Provost, 1990). The structure of these rules has, preferably, the following form:
Ci1θi1ai1̂Ci2θi2ai2̂ . . . ̂CikθikaikCiθiai (1)
where Ci1, Ci2, . . . , Cik, Ci fields from the TRANS file, ai1, ai2, . . . aik, ai constants, and θij are relational operators (e.g., “=”, “>”, “<”, etc.). In addition, each rule is assigned to a user defined by the Cust_ID (user identifier) from the CUST file.
Next, it is important to remove “useless” individual rules from the total number of rules. A process to remove these useless individual rules is shown in
Ai1θi1bi1̂Ai2θi2bi2̂ . . . ̂AijθijbiĵCi1θijaiĵCi2θi2ai2̂ . . . ̂CikθikaikCiθiai (2)
where Ai1, . . . , Aij are the fields in the CUST file, bi1, . . . bij are constants, and θij are relational operators (e.g., “=”, “>”, “<”, etc.). For each individual rule of the form (1), the aggregated rule of the form (2) is formed after the individual rules are compressed. The newly aggregated rules (formed in step 40) can be, e.g., fuzzy rules, and the operators θij should also be, e.g., fuzzy operators. For example, several of the individual rules that are similar (generally pertaining to different users) can be compressed into one aggregated rule pertaining to the same subject matter that can be applicable to several users. For example, if several rules have the form:
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- IF Shopping_time=“evening” and Day_of_week=“weekday” and Purchase=“diapers” THEN Purchase=“beer”,
and it is known that most of the users corresponding to this rule are males, then these rules can be compressed into the aggregated rule having the following form: - IF Sex=“Male” and Shopping_time=“evening” and Day_of_week=“weekday” and Purchase=“diapers” THEN Purchase=“beer”.
- IF Shopping_time=“evening” and Day_of_week=“weekday” and Purchase=“diapers” THEN Purchase=“beer”,
Additional fields (e.g., Sex, etc.), unlike other fields in the above example rule, are fields from the CUST file. Individual rules relating to different users can be compressed into the same aggregated rule for a group of users. Thus, the rule compression can preferably be implemented for different users. The number of aggregated rules (of the form (2)) generated by the compression algorithm should be much smaller than the initial number of individual rules. Then, in step 45, the aggregated rules can be validated (one by one) by the human expert (including a particular user) to determine which rules are appropriate for that user. After the user validates the aggregated rules, this user selects the set of preferred aggregated rules in step 50. Only the individual rules corresponding to the aggregated rules selected in step 50 are retained in the user's dynamic profile (step 55) to provide validated individual rules (step 60) to the user.
B. Rule Compression Process-
- IF (Shopping_time=“evening” and Day_of_week=“weekday” and Purchase=“diapers”) THEN Purchase=“beer”.
This sample rule would be mapped into the corresponding vector (“evening”, “weekday”, “diapers”, “beer”) of the 4-dimensional space of attributes (variables):Shopping_time, Day_of_week, Purchase and another Purchase.
- IF (Shopping_time=“evening” and Day_of_week=“weekday” and Purchase=“diapers”) THEN Purchase=“beer”.
The example rule compression process (described below in detail) then generates rules (e.g., fuzzy rules of the form (2)). These fuzzy rules utilize fuzzy linguistic variables for the fields from the CUST and TRANS files, which are generally known to those having ordinary skill in the art. Each fuzzy linguistic variable has a corresponding identifier (e.g., Income, Transaction_Amount, etc.), each being capable of providing a range of values (e.g., natural numbers between 0 and 1,000,000), a set of terms (e.g., “low”, “medium”, “high”, etc.), and a membership function that assigns a membership value (e.g., between 0 and 1) to each value from the domain of the fuzzy linguistic variable for each range of values. In addition, the non-ordered fields in the CUST and TRANS files (e.g., “Product_Purchased”) have assigned classification hierarchies; for example, the field “Product_Purchased” can include standard classification hierarchies used in marketing. Thus, UPCs, e.g., can be grouped into brands, brands can be grouped into product categories, etc.
The following example inputs are provided to the Rule Compression Process:
a. Individual rules from users' dynamic profiles.
b. Fuzzy linguistic variables for all fields in the CUST and TRANS files.
c. Hierarchical classifications for non-ordered fields.
Example outputs generated by the Rule Compression Process are a set of (preferably) fuzzy aggregated rules having the form (2).
The steps of the example rule compression process shall now be described in detail with reference to
The center of the cluster can also be determined using other methods, such as, e.g., selecting the most “representative” point in that cluster.
In step 185, the next cluster is selected and the procedure described with respect to step 180 is repeated. In step 175, it is determined whether all of the clusters in the group of clusters have been evaluated. As an illustration, if cluster Clusti contains three 3-dimensional points (0,0,1), (0,1,0), (1,0,1), corresponding to the vertices of a equilateral triangle, then the center of this cluster Ci the center of the triangle, e,g, the point (½,½,½). Other approaches to defining the center of a cluster can be used. This example rule compression process does not depend on any specific method for defining any center of a cluster Ci.
Given the set of rules (1) corresponding to the cluster with the center Ci=(ci1, ci2, . . . cik), the corresponding aggregated rule has the form:
Ci1θi1ci1̂Ci2θi2ci2̂ . . . ̂CikθikcikCiθici (3)
which is a “representative” rule for the cluster of similar rules. For example, if the center of the cluster is (½,½,½), the following rule is generated:
C1=½̂C2=½C3=½
Also, for totally ordered fields Cij, standard deviations σij of the points in that cluster are calculated for that field. For unordered categorical fields Cij, a measure of the “deviation” of the points is determined in that cluster along the j-th dimension from cij (by using the hierarchical classification for that field).
In step 190, a total number of clusters generated in Step 165 is provided to the user. In step 195, the user is asked if there are too many of the generated clusters for manually inspecting the aggregated rules (e.g., the number of generated clusters is greater than a predetermined number). If so, the generated clusters are compressed using a cluster compression process described in step 205. Thereafter, there is a smaller number of clusters (and corresponding aggregation rules per cluster). The user is asked again, in step 195, if there are too many generated clusters for the manual inspection of aggregated rules. If the number of clusters is smaller than the predetermined number, for each cluster Ci in step 165 or in step 205, a set of users corresponding to the points for that cluster is identified in step 210. Each point in a cluster corresponds to a first representative rule from the dynamic profile of the user, so that all of the users corresponding to the dynamic profile rules from that cluster can be identified. For example, CUST_IDi defined as a set of values Cust_IDij corresponding to the users corresponding to the rules of cluster Ci. A set of records (“CUSTi”) from the CUST file corresponding to the users of that cluster is identified (e.g., having user ID values from the set CUST_IDi). Thus, CUSTi={r|CUST(r) and r.Cust_IDεCUST_IDi}.
The set of records CUSTi a set of points in m-dimensional space (where m is the number of fields in the CUST file). These points are separated into clusters using the same techniques as described in step 165. For each resulting cluster CUSTij, a center is located as explained below. The set of points belonging to that cluster is approximated with a logical statement having the form:
A1θij1bij1̂A2θij2bij2̂ . . . ̂Amθijmbijm (4)
to form a corresponding condition in step 215, where Ai the fields of the CUST file, θijl are relational operators (e.g., “=”, “<”, “>”, etc.) and bijl are constants. One way to construct the condition (4) would be by finding the center bij=(bij1, . . . , bijm) of the cluster CUSTij as described in step 180, and substituting the values of bijl into the condition (4) (also setting all the relational operators to be “=”). Another way to construct this condition (4) is described in A. Motro, “Using Integrity Constraints to Provide Intentional Answers to Relational Queries”, Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Very Large Databases, 1989, pp. 237-246, and C. Shum et al., “Implicit Representation of Extensional Answers”, Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Expert Database Systems, 1988.
In step 220, the first and second representative rules are augmented (e.g., expression (4) is augmented with expression (3)). The resulting rule is:
A1θij1bij1̂A2θij2bij2̂ . . . ̂Amθijmbijm̂Ci1θi1ci1̂Ci2θi2ci2̂ . . . ̂CikθikcikCimθmici (5)
For example, assume that the center of a cluster is a rule: “if a user shops in the evening on weekdays and buys diapers, the user also buys beer” (e.g., IF Shopping_time=“evening” and Day_of_week=“weekday” and Purchase=“diapers” THEN Purchase=“beer”). Also, assume that most of the users in that cluster are men, thus forming the expression (4) where “Sex”=“Male”. Accordingly, the augmented rule is “if a male user shops in the evening on weekdays and buys diapers, the user also buys beer” (e.g., IF “Sex”=“Male” and “Shopping_time”=“evening” and “Day_of_week”=“weekday” and “Purchase”=“diapers” THEN “Purchase”=“beer”).
Then, in step 225, the rules of the form (5) generated in step 220 are converted into fuzzy aggregated rules. In particular, each field Ai and Cij in the form (5) is mapped into a corresponding fuzzy linguistic variable associated with that field. In addition, all of the terms in the expression (5) are converted into appropriate fuzzy expressions. For example, assume that a non-fuzzy term A1=20 corresponds to a fuzzy linguistic variable also denoted as A1. Further assume that the term set for A1 is either low or high, and that there is a membership function that assigns the membership value (e.g., between 0 and 1) to each value from the domain of fuzzy term A1 for each value from the term set. Then, it can be determined for which term (e.g., low or high) the membership value 20 is higher, and a corresponding term is assigned. If the membership value is higher for the term “low”, then the expression A1=20 is replaced by A1=LOW.
In step 230, the set of aggregated fuzzy rules generated by the rule compression process is shown to the human expert who selects only the meaningful and useful rules from this set according to user desired criteria.
C. Cluster Compression Process
C1=âC2<bC4=c, and
C1=d̂C3=eC4=g
It may be also assumed that the domains of attributes C2 and C3 are discrete and ordered. These rules have different structure and therefore are different. In order to calculate the distance between these rules, we first have to bring these rules into the same 4-dimensional space of attributes C1, C2, C3, and C4. This can be done by replacing these rules with the rules
C1=âC3=ẑC3=xC4=c (6)
C1=d̂C2=ŷC3=eC4=g (7)
where x and y are uniformly distributed random variables ranging over the domains Dom(C3) and Dom(C2) of attributes C3 and C2 respectively and z is a uniformly distributed random variable ranging over the domain of Dom(C2) from its smallest element to b. This procedure can also be performed using actual distribution in the data for corresponding attributes of x and y variables. It should be noted that the term C2<b (the first aggregated rule described above) should be replaced with C2=z in rule (6). In addition, term C3=x is provided into the first aggregated rule and term C2=y is provided into the second aggregated rule. It is also assumed that, e.g., random variables x, y, and z are uniformly distributed over their respective domains.
If constants are substituted for the variables x, y, and z, the terms of the aggregated rules (6) and (7) will contain only equalities and constants. Thus, these aggregated rules (with the above-described substitutions) will have respective points in the same 4-dimensional space. If the distance between these two points can be calculated for fixed values of variables x, y, and z—(Clust1 (x,z), Clust2 (y)) (e.g., if all the attributes are numeric, then the distance can be a Euclidean distance; if some of the attributes are categorical and unordered, the distance can be calculated in terms of how far the nodes are in the aggregation hierarchy defined for that attribute)—then the distance between clusters Clust1 and Clust2 is equal to:
since it can be assumed that the domains of attributes C2 and C3 are discrete. If these domains were continuous, integration would have been used instead.
In general, let c1=(c11, c12, . . . c1k) and c2=(c21, c22, . . . , c2m) be the centers of two clusters Clust1 and Clust2 as calculated in steps 170 through 185 illustrated in
Once the distance between the two clusters is determined, the clusters can be merged as follows. In order to perform this operation, the size of the cluster should be determined as a part of the Cluster Compression process. The size of the cluster is the measure of how far the points of the cluster are apart from each other. This size can be determined, e.g., using the following formula:
where c is the center of the cluster. Other measurements can also be used by those having ordinary skill in the art.
The flow diagram in
where α is a predetermined threshold value. The two clusters should be merged by forming a new cluster consisting of points from Clust1 and Clust2 if condition (8) occurs. Steps 250-275 should be repeated until there are no more clusters left that can be merged (see step 255).
In deciding which clusters Clust1 and Clust2 should be chosen in step 250 of the cluster compression process, distances between, e.g., all pairs of clusters can be calculated and condition (8) can be checked to ascertain which clusters should be merged. Other methods to select the clusters for compression can also be used. Furthermore, the distance between all the pairs of clusters does not necessarily have to be calculated.
The system according to particular embodiments can be used in a Personal Shopping Assistant (PSA), a Personal Intelligent Digital Assistant (PIDA), and in a dynamic Web content presentation system, described below.
A Personal Shopping Assistant (PSA) system according to particular embodiments provides recommendations on the products and services that its users should consider purchasing (including, e.g., suggestions for purchasing at a specific source, and at a particular price). An example embodiment of the PSA system according to particular embodiments is shown in
The User Transaction Collection and Recording Unit 115 collects most of the shopping transactions performed by the user (e.g. 80-90% of all the purchases made by the user). The User Transaction Collection and Recording Unit 115 can be implemented as a “smart card,” or as a smart Point of Sales register that records individual items purchased by the user. Alternatively, the user himself can record this information (as part of the User Transaction Collection and Recording Unit 115) using some transaction recording systems such as Quicken or Microsoft's Money.
When the user purchases one or more products, the User Transaction Collection and Recording Unit 115 records and transmits this information to the Purchasing History Storage Unit 120 where this information is stored as part of the purchasing history of the user. The Purchasing History Storage Unit 120 can be implemented, e.g., as a database that records transactions performed by various users in the TRANS file, as described above.
Information stored by the Purchasing History Storage Unit 120 is provided to User Estimated Purchasing Needs module 140. In order to estimate the user's purchasing needs, pertinent static and dynamic profiles of the user should be constructed based on the past purchasing histories obtained from the Purchasing History Storage Unit 120, which is performed by the User Profile Generation module 110. Static profiles include the user's demographic information (e.g., age, sex, marital status), particular preferences (e.g., user prefers a particular brand of beer), and certain purchasing decisions (e.g., the user bought a particular automobile in a particular month). Dynamic profiles include a set of rules (e.g., “if a user goes to France, the user often buys perfumes in Paris”, “if user Y visits a Web site from the site Z in the evening, user Y does not spend a predetermined amount of time at site Z”, etc.).
In addition, the PSA system maintains information on the current State of the World using the State-of-the-World module 150, which records information, e.g., on a broad range of products and services offered by various suppliers and on promotions and discounts run for these products and services. Also, the PSA system includes the State-of-the-User module 160 that maintains information about the user obtained from the Purchasing History Storage Unit 120 (e.g., the user will be in New York on Jun. 28, 1995 because she purchased an airline ticket for that date and destination) and various external information (e.g., the date, time, and the user's location, if available).
By knowing the purchasing history of a user (provided from the Purchasing History Storage Unit 120), the user's profile (provided from the User Profile Generation module 110), and the external information about the user (provided from the State-of-the-User module 160), the PSA system estimates the user's future purchasing needs using the User Estimated Purchasing Needs module 140. This Estimated Purchasing Needs module 140 may match the rules specifying which products the user will buy (and when) with the user's purchasing history. As a result, a set of products that the user should consider buying is produced.
Once future purchasing needs are estimated in Step 140, the PSA system will match these needs against a broad range of products and services offered by various suppliers and on the promotions and discounts run for these products and services. This matching process is performed by the Purchasing Recommendation module 145 using conventional methods that are known to those of ordinary skill in the art. For example, if the user needs to buy a pair of jeans within the next two months, the Purchasing Recommendations module 145 selects the merchants selling jeans, e.g, the cheapest pair of jeans that fits the use's requirements (considering the promotions offered within the next two months) by matching to the user profile (e.g., the user's purchasing needs). Once the Purchasing Recommendations module 145 matches the user's purchasing needs against the products and services, the Purchasing Recommendations module 145 provides purchasing recommendations to the user.
For example, based on the past purchasing history of a particular user, the PSA service may ascertain that whenever user X goes to France, user X often buys perfume in Paris. This rule is stored as a part of the user profile using the User Profile Generation module 110. In addition, the Purchasing History Storage Unit 120 of the PSA service may receive information that the user has purchased a ticket to Paris, and in a substantially same time period, the State-of-the-World Unit 150 of the PSA service also receives information that, e.g., Christian Dior has launched a new line of perfumes that is similar to the brands previously purchased by user X. In addition, the State-of-the-World Unit 150 may also receive information that the duty-free shop at Charles de Gaulle airport is having a sale on these new perfumes (the price being very competitive). Using the above-described example information, the PSA service (using the User Estimated Purchasing Needs module 140) estimates that user X may want to buy these perfumes and sends a message to user X (via the Purchasing Recommendation module 145) to consider purchasing the new perfume at the duty-free shop at Charles de Gaulle airport.
The success of the PSA service depends primarily on accurate predictions by the PSA service of users' future needs. If the user finds, e.g., 50% of the PSA suggestions useful, the user will probably be satisfied with the PSA service. However, if the user finds, e.g., only 10% of the suggestions to be useful, the user will, most likely, reject this service. As indicated above, in order to make predictions of the user's future needs more accurate, it is important to build reliable user profiles. Particular embodiments provide a method and system for generating better dynamic profiles and, therefore, providing more accurate predictions of the users' future needs.
The PSA system illustrated in
The second example system of
The PSA service can also be used in a Personal Intelligent Digital Assistant (PIDA) service as illustrated in
For example, in order to illustrate how the PIDA service operates, assume that it is Tuesday, 11:30 am and that user X is driving in his car on I-87 in the Albany region on business, and that he indicated through his PDA device 350 that he wants to have lunch. The PDA device (350) records the current state of user X as “Tuesday, 11:30 am, presently driving in user X's car on I-87 in the Albany region, travel purpose is business, wants to have lunch.” This information is sent from the PDA device 350 to the PSA system 300 via telecommunication medium 130. Based on user X's past purchasing history, the PIDA service recognizes that whenever user X is traveling on business, he likes to have light lunches at good quality restaurants and that he generally likes sea food. By examining user X's personal profile, and by matching the dynamic rule which provides that “whenever user X travels on business, he prefers light lunches at good quality restaurants”, with user X's current state (user X is currently traveling on business), the PSA system 300 can predict that user X prefers a lunch at a good quality restaurant and he wants to eat light food. Next, the State-of-the-World module 150 of the PSA system 300 searches for highly rated seafood restaurants in the Albany region. If the PSA system 300 finds any such restaurant, user X is provided with restaurant choices (e.g., if more than one restaurant is located) by contacting user X's PDA device 350. If the PSA system 300 does not find first choice restaurants conforming to the user X's preferences, the PSA system 300 provides second choice restaurants to user X.
User needs are estimated based on purchasing history, the user's static and dynamic profiles and the current “state” of the user (sent to the PSA system from the PDA device). When the needs of the user are estimated (e.g. the user wants to buy a perfume in Paris, or wants to eat at a good seafood restaurant in the Albany region), they are matched with the current state of the “world.” If the PIDA service finds good matches (e.g., Christian Dior perfumes are on sale at Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris, or that there is a good seafood restaurant in the Albany region serving special lunches and located very close to the user's current route), purchase recommendations are provided to the customer based on these matches. These recommendations are sent back from the PSA server 300 to the PDA device 350 via a telecommunication medium 130 (e.g., via e-mail or through another intelligent user interface).
The PIDA service incorporating the system and method according to particular embodiments can be used for notifying the users about various purchasing opportunities, both time sensitive (e.g., a particular sale will start next week) and spatial (e.g., if you need a new sweater, and sweaters you would probably like are on sale at the store near your work).
The system and method according to particular embodiments can also be incorporated in a Web site system. In conventional systems, when a user visits a particular Web site, the user usually sees the same contents, regardless of who the user is. Using the system and method according to particular embodiments (e.g., individual profiles for respective users), the dynamic Web content of the Web site presented to the user can be varied to conform to the dynamic profile of the user visiting the Web site. Furthermore, dynamic profile construction methods can also be used in fraud detection systems. In particular, a set of fraud detection rules can be dynamically generated for each user.
It should be noted that the use of the above-described rule compression process and the cluster compression process according to particular embodiments is not limited to a construction of user profiles. For example, these process can also be used for computing useful association rules in data mining applications, or in general compressing large sets of rules generated by data mining algorithms.
D. Selective Validation ProcedureAnother embodiment for providing a selective validation of individual user rules is shown in
A flow chart representation of an example embodiment of a process executed by the selective validation module (or an example steps executed by the selective validation arrangement) described above is illustrated in
As shown in
In step 430, a decision is made (e.g., automatically via the processor 320 or by the human expert) if the processing of the selective validation module/arrangement is completed, and, if so, initiates a completion process according to particular embodiments. There can be numerous conditions to indicate to the selective validation module/arrangement according to particular embodiments that the completion process should be initiated. For example, the following example conditions may prompt the selective validation module/arrangement to stop processing:
-
- Set S can became empty (e.g., all subsets of rules are moved from Set S to “Good_Rules” set and/or to “Bad_Rules” set). If this is the case, all subsets of rules are marked with their appropriate designation (e.g., “good” or “bad”);
- the number of subsets in Set S is less than a predetermined number;
- the ratio of the rules in Set S with respect to all of the existing rules is less than predetermined value; and
- the user decides to stop the process (e.g., a desired number of rules has already been classified or marked).
Other stopping criteria may be used for initiating the completion process according to particular embodiments.
If it is determined that the processing of the completion process according to particular embodiments should be initiated, the rules from the Good_Rules set is assigned to one or more corresponding users (step 435), Good_Rules set and/or undecided subsets can be displayed (step 440), and the execution of the process according to particular embodiments is stopped. If, however, it is determined that the completion process should not be initiated (e.g., the subsets should be regrouped), the remaining rules in Set S (e.g., the subsets marked as “undecided”) are grouped or regrouped to generate a new Set S (step 445), and this new Set S is provided to the human expert (e.g., looped back to step 410) so that the rules within new Set S may be reclassified using the process and/or the arrangement according to particular embodiments (e.g., looped again starting with step 410).
It should be noted that if a particular subset Set S is marked as “undecided”, this subset is then further analyzed by either splitting it into smaller subsets using techniques described below or optionally regrouping this particular subset with other related sets from Set S as also described below.
According to an example embodiment of the process according to particular embodiments, the rules in Set S which were marked as “undecided” are grouped to generate a new Set S according to the following example methods:
-
- A predetermined number of the remaining subsets (which can also be a single subset) contained in Set S are selected and merged together to form new subsets. The above-described remaining sets can be selected by the human expert or according to some predetermined selection criterion (e.g., the size of individual sets of rules should be smaller than a predetermined value).
- One or more subsets are selected from Set S. For each of these subsets, at least one of the following example “partitioning” operators is applied to the selected subsets: a filtering operator and/or a cluster/grouping operator (which are as described below). Other “partitioning” operators can also be implemented. The terms—“clustering operator” and “grouping operator refer to identical operations and shall be utilized interchangeably below. In a particular embodiments, subsets in Set S (obtained using the cluster operator with a particular “cut” operator) can be re-grouped based on a different “cut” operator, which may depend from the previous cut and/or can be based on other parameters or criteria. For example, these subsets can be merged back into a single set of rules and the cluster operator is then applied to this subset again (but with a different “cut” parameter). Other operators can also be used to regroup the subsets in Set S.
I. Filtering Operators
An example filtering operator receives a subset of rules and splits this subset into at least 2 subsets: one subset contains rules which pass a predetermined selection criteria of the filter, and another subset contains rules which do not. In particular, this selection criteria may be specified using a data mining query (or a pattern template). The data mining query describes a class of patterns in general terms.
Data mining queries are described in publications—T. Imielinski et al., “DataMine: Application Programming Interface and Query Language for Database Mining”, Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, August 1996; J. Han et al., “DMQL: A Data Mining Query Language for relational Databases”, Proceedings of the SIGMOD Workshop in Research Issues on Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, Montreal, June 1996; and W. Shen et al., “Metaqueries for Data Mining,” Advances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, chap. 15, AAAI Press, 1996. Any pattern description language or any data mining query language can be used to specify patterns and data mining queries. For example, article by T. Imielinski et al., “DataMine: Application Programming Interface and Query Language for Database Mining,” Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, August 1996 introduced “M-SQL” for association rule discovery which is based on software query language (“SQL”) modified with additional data mining operators. However, the example embodiment of the data mining query does not depend on any specific language.
For the following example request, “Find all rules in customer purchase data specifying which product categories the customers with children of various ages are buying”, M-SQL query is as follows:
-
- SELECT *
- FROM Mine(CustomerPurchaseData) R
- WHERE R.Body<{(Children=*), (ChildrenAgeLess6=*), (ChildrenAge6to12=*), (ChildrenAgeMore12=*)} and {(Children=*)}<R.Body and R. Consequent IN {(CategorySweets=*), (CategoryCereal=*), (CategoryFruit=*)} and R.Confidence>=0.5 and R.Support>=0.01.
This data mining query discovers association rules if and only if they satisfy certain criteria. First, the association rules must include the fields Children, ChildrenAgeLess6, ChildrenAgre6to12, ChildrenAgeMore12 of the table CustomerPurchaseData in the body of the rule. Second, the attribute Children must necessarily be present (this is specified by R. Body). Third, the discovered patterns must have one of the fields CategorySweets, CategoryCereal or CategoryFruit as a consequent of the rule (specified by R.Consequent). Finally, the discovered patterns must satisfy certain thresholds measuring statistical significance (e.g., R.Confidence and R. Support).
Thus, this example data mining query specifies a set of patterns. The set of these example patterns may indicate:
-
- the extent to which families with children younger than six years old buy sweets,
- the extent to which families with children older than 12 years old buy sweets,
- the extent to which families with children older than 12 years old buy fruit, etc.
Therefore, the pattern specified by the association rule: - Children=YES and ChildrenAgeLess6=YES→CategorySweets=YES (0.01, 0.55)
noted above is also one of the patterns specified by the data mining query.
Pattern Templates are described in M. Klemmettinen et al., “Finding Interesting Rules for Large Sets of Discovered Association Rules”, Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, December, 1994. For example, a pattern template may be provided as follows:
-
- Children and ChildrenAge *→Category(0.01,0.5)
where ChildrenAge and Category are generalizations of attributes. Thus, if ChildrenAge specifies the set of attributes {ChildrenAgeLess6, ChildrenAge6to12, ChildrenAgeMore12} and Category specifies the set of attributes {CategorySweets, CategoryCereal, CategoryFruit}, then this pattern template specifies the same patterns as the above-described data mining query.
- Children and ChildrenAge *→Category(0.01,0.5)
II. Clustering Operator
The clustering operator receives, as input, a subset of rules and an attribute hierarchy of this subset. In particular, the attribute hierarchy can be formed using the procedure described below with reference with
A top portion of
The attribute hierarchy may include one or more (e.g., two) levels of nodes below the descendent leaves of the attribute hierarchy (e.g., the fields of the TRANS transaction file). A first level consists of a pair of attributes—field and a relational operator. The relational operator may include example operators such as “=”, “<”, “>”, etc. A second level is below the first level and consists of three attributes—field, relational operator and sets of values which the field attribute can be compared to (e.g., predetermined values, one or more intervals, etc.). For example, the second level can be (C3, =, a) (e.g., field C3 uses the relational operator “=” to be compared to variable “a”), (C5, <, 20) (e.g., field C5, via the relational operator “<” is compared to number 20), (C8, =, [60, 80]) (e.g., field C8, via the relational operator “=” is compared to a range between 60 and 80), etc.
After the attribute hierarchy is generated in step 455 (shown in
After the “Cut” data is generated (step 460 in
Thus, the clustering operator consists of steps 460-470. As indicated above, the following data is provided as input to the clustering operator: a) initial set of user rules, b) an attribute hierarchy as described above, and c) the “Cut”. The output of the clustering operator is Set S which includes subsets of rules. These subsets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (e.g., a union of the subsets is equal to all of the rules in Set S).
Using the “Cut”, two rules are provided to the same class if and only if they have the same structure with respect to the “Cut”. In particular, the rules should have the same number of attributes and these attributes, e.g., can be grouped in pairs so that two attributes in the same pair have the same ancestor in the “Cut”. For example, the rules:
C1=5 and C4<6 and C9>8C12=8
and
C1>3 and C6=5 and C10<2C13<7
are equivalent because fields C4 and C6 (shown in
C2=4 and C9=5C12=8
and
C2=8 and C11=3C12=6
are not equivalent because fields C9 and C11 do not have a common ancestor in the “Cut”. Accordingly, using the procedure shown in
After Set S is split into a subset of clusters, one or more statistics may be generated for each cluster. These statistics may be, e.g.,
-
- the number of rules per cluster.
- if a component of the rule is an attribute, the ranges of values that such attribute can assume. For example, if the attribute is “Age=a”, then it may be preferable to collect statistics on the maximum and minimal values for the age in the rules for that cluster, in addition to the average value and standard deviation for that age.
- for different nodes/groups, how many rules correspond to different attributes for each node/group. For example, for group N6 shown in
FIG. 13 , it is possible to maintain the number of rules with attribute C9 and the number of rules with attribute C10. - centers of clusters (calculated, e.g., with the method described above and illustrated in
FIGS. 4 and 5 ). These centers can be reported to the human expert.
These example statistics may be utilized by the human expert in step 410 (shown inFIG. 9 ) to determine which sets of rules the human expert may select for a manual examination. This completes the description ofFIG. 9 and the way rules are examined by the human expert.
If the human expert determines that the clustering of rules based on a particular “Cut” is unsatisfactory, the rules may be regrouped in step 445 using a different “Cut”. For example, this different cut would be a finer cut which generated a larger number of clusters (which are smaller in size). This can be done by merging back the clusters of rules obtained with the previous “Cut” (in step 445), returning to step 410 where the human expert marks all the merged rules as “undecided”, and then, in step 445 again, re-cluster rules based on the different (e.g., finer) “Cut”.
The process and system according to particular embodiments can be implemented using, e.g., a graphical user interface (“GUI”) which enables the human expert to communicate with the validation system according to particular embodiments. Using this GUI, the human expert selects a number of operators from a graphical menu of the GUI. Example operators provided on this graphical menu may include a “Filtering” operator, a “Clustering” operator and a “Browsing” operator (e.g., allows the human expert to examine sets of rules generated by the “Clustering” operator or another operator). Other operators can also be included in the graphical menu of the GUI.
The human expert may apply a number of (e.g., four) operations in sequence (e.g., two filtering operators, one clustering operator, and one browsing operator). This process can also be performed in parallel (e.g., the human expert may decide to perform two filtering operations in parallel and then combine their results).
In particular embodiments, while the human expert proceeds deeper into an validation process (e.g., performs more iterations of steps 410-430 and 445 shown in
Claims
1. A method comprising:
- accessing, by a computing device, at least a portion of a user profile that is based at least in part on historical data associated with a user;
- receiving, by a computing device, data indicative of a current state of the user from a remote system, wherein the current state of the user is the user's current activity;
- selecting, by a computing device, content by matching one or more attributes of the content to the portion of the user profile and the current state of the user; and
- providing, by a computing device, the selected content for display to the user.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data associated with the user comprises the download history of the user.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data associated with the user comprises the user's online purchase history.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data associated with the user comprises the user's online transactions.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the current state of the user comprises the user's interactions with an application on a mobile device.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the current state of the user comprises the time the user is interacting with the application on the mobile device.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein the content comprises an advertisement.
8. The method of claim 1, wherein the content comprises digital media.
9. An apparatus comprising:
- one or more processors; and
- one or more memories operatively coupled to at least one of the one or more processors and having instructions stored thereon that, when executed by at least one of the one or more processors, cause at least one of the one or more processors to: access at least a portion of a user profile that is based at least in part on historical data associated with a user; receive data indicative of a current state of the user from a remote system, wherein the current state of the user is the user's current activity; select content by matching one or more attributes of the content to the portion of the user profile and the current state of the user; and provide the selected content for display to the user.
10. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the historical data associated with the user comprises the download history of the user.
11. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the historical data associated with the user comprises the user's online purchase history.
12. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the historical data associated with the user comprises the user's online transactions.
13. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the current state of the user comprises the user's interactions with an application on a mobile device.
14. The apparatus of claim 13, wherein the current state of the user comprises the time the user is interacting with the application on the mobile device.
15. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the content comprises an advertisement.
16. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the content comprises digital media.
17. At least one non-transitory computer-readable medium storing computer-readable instructions that are operable, when executed by one or more computing devices, to cause at least one of the one or more computing devices to:
- access at least a portion of a user profile that is based at least in part on historical data associated with a user;
- receive data indicative of a current state of the user from a remote system, wherein the current state of the user is the user's current activity;
- select content by matching one or more attributes of the content to the portion of the user profile and the current state of the user; and
- provide the selected content for display to the user.
18. The at least one non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 17, wherein the historical data associated with the user comprises the download history of the user.
19. The at least one non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 17, wherein the current state of the user comprises the user's interactions with an application on a mobile device.
20. The at least one non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 17, wherein the content comprises an advertisement.
Type: Application
Filed: Jan 16, 2015
Publication Date: Jun 4, 2015
Inventors: Alexander S. Tuzhilin (New York, NY), Gediminas Adomavicius (Jersey City, NY)
Application Number: 14/599,263