Identifying top rated products

Abstract

The top rated products in a product category are identified by computing a score for each product in the category. The score is computed by calculating a time decay factor for each product category. The time decay factor is utilized to decay the ratings of each product as a function of time. A relevance value is also computed for each product. The relevance value is utilized to modify the ratings for each product in view of the recency of the ratings. The score may be computed for each product using the ratings for the product, the computed time decay factor, and/or the relevance value. The computed scores are utilized to rank the products in the product category.

Description

BACKGROUND

An online merchant may provide a large number of products for sale to customers over the Internet. Customers may access information regarding the available products through a web site or other information service provided by the online merchant. Product information may include information needed by a customer to identify and purchase a particular product, such as a description of the product, an image of the product, product specifications, the price and availability of the product, and a mechanism for initiating a purchase of the product.

In order to enhance the online shopping experience and to allow customers to fully research a particular product, an online merchant might also provide a mechanism to allow customers to provide quantitative ratings for products. For instance, an appropriate user interface might be provided through which customers can provide a quantitative rating for each product, such as rating the product between one and five “stars” or providing a numerical rating of the product between one and 100.

The average quantitative rating received for each product is commonly displayed with the product information. In this manner, potential purchasers of each product are provided with a concise indicator of the average rating provided by other customers for each product. It can be difficult, however, for customers to accurately identify the products that are top rated in a category using an average quantitative rating for products in the category. One reason for this is that an average rating does not take into account the number of ratings received for each product. As a result, a product with a single 5 star rating might be rated higher than another product with one thousand ratings that has a 4.5 star average. Accordingly, identifying top rated products based upon average quantitative ratings may be confusing and even potentially misleading to customers.

It is with respect to these and other considerations that the disclosure made herein is presented.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a system diagram showing aspects of one illustrative operating environment for implementing the concepts and technologies disclosed herein for identifying top rated products;

FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram showing aspects of one mechanism for identifying top rated products, according to one embodiment disclosed herein;

FIG. 3 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine for identifying top rated products, according to one embodiment disclosed herein;

FIGS. 4A-4B are flow diagrams showing one illustrative routine disclosed herein in embodiments for computing a prior probability distribution and a time decay factor for use in identifying top rated products;

FIG. 5 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine disclosed herein in embodiments for modifying a prior probability distribution based upon the number of products in a product category;

FIG. 6 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine for computing a score for a product for use in identifying top rated products according to one embodiment disclosed herein;

FIGS. 7A-7B are flow diagrams showing several illustrative routines for modifying product ratings based upon product relevance according to one embodiment disclosed herein;

FIG. 8 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine for computing a score for a product assigned to multiple product categories according to one embodiment disclosed herein;

FIG. 9 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine for computing and displaying a likely next rating score for a product according to one embodiment disclosed herein;

FIG. 10 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine for identifying and addressing rating discrepancies according to one embodiment disclosed herein;

FIG. 11 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine for ranking products based upon scores computed for sets of products according to one embodiment disclosed herein;

FIG. 12 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine for identifying top rated products by attributes other than product ratings, according to one embodiment disclosed herein; and

FIG. 13 is a computer architecture diagram showing one illustrative computer hardware architecture for use in computing devices configured to implement the concepts and technologies disclosed herein in one embodiment.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

The following detailed description is directed to technologies for identifying top rated products. As discussed briefly above, previous mechanisms for identifying top rated products utilize average product ratings in order to identify top rated products in a product category. Products having the highest average rating are identified as the top rated products. The average rating, however, does not take into account the number of ratings that have been provided for each product. As a result, a product with a single 5 star rating might be rated higher than another product with one thousand ratings that has a 4.5 star average. Using the average rating to identify top rated products also ignores the expectations of what distribution of ratings is normal for a product in a given category. This measure may be important in determining the number of ratings needed in order to have confidence that the actual ratings for a product are truly indicative of the product's quality.

Using the average rating for products to determine top rated products also ignores the reality that customers' opinions of products often change over time. This can be the result of a change in the product itself, which might render the previous ratings invalid, or a change in customers' expectations or perceptions of a product. For example, the best digital camera from five years ago is likely to be inferior to models available today. Even though an older digital camera received excellent ratings in the past, those ratings likely do not accurately reflect customers' current opinions.

In order to address the issues described, and others, the concepts and technologies disclosed herein may identify the top rated products in a product category as a function of the value, quantity, and recency of product ratings. Data identifying the top rated products can then be displayed to a customer on an appropriate web page, through a user interface widget, or in another manner. Data identifying the top rated products might also be utilized to sort search results or in another fashion.

According to one embodiment disclosed herein, a score (which may be referred to herein as a “likely next rating score”) is computed for each product in a product category. The score is utilized to rank the products in the product category against one another to identify the top rated products in the product category. In one embodiment, the score is computed by establishing a prior probability distribution of quantitative ratings of products in the product category. The prior probability distribution is computed in one embodiment by selecting a prior probability distribution that minimizes a prediction error for each product in the product category.

The prior probability distribution for a category and the ratings for each product are then utilized to compute a posterior probability distribution for each product. A predicted next rating for each product is then computed based upon the posterior probability distribution computed for each product. The predicted next rating for a product is utilized as the score for ranking each product against other products in the same product category.

When computing the posterior probability distribution for a product, the ratings for the product might be decayed utilizing a time decay factor. The time decay factor is utilized to decay each rating as a function of time. For instance, an exponential function might be applied to decay the weight of each rating over time. The time decay factor may be computed by selecting a time decay factor that minimizes a prediction error for the ratings of each product in the product category. The time decay factor might also be regularized in embodiments by increasing the prediction error inversely to the magnitude of the time decay factor.

The actual ratings for each product might also be modified based upon a relevance value for the corresponding product. The relevance value is utilized to modify the ratings in view of the recency of the ratings received for the product. In one embodiment, the relevance value is calculated by computing a current rating velocity and an average rating velocity for a product. The current rating velocity is the number of ratings received for the product in a recent time period. The average rating velocity is the average number of ratings received per time period for the product during its lifetime. In this embodiment, the relevance value is the ratio of the average rating velocity and the current rating velocity.

In another embodiment, the relevance value is calculated by computing the average rating velocity for the product. An expected number of ratings for the product during a previous time period is then computed based upon the average rating velocity. An amount of time necessary for the product to actually receive the expected number of ratings is then determined. The relevance value is then computed as a ratio of the amount of time during the previous time period and the amount of time actually taken for the product to receive the expected number of ratings. For instance, if the average rating velocity of a product is four ratings per month, then the product would be expected to receive four ratings during the previous month. If it actually took the product six weeks to obtain four ratings then the relevance value for the product is ⅔ (four weeks divided by six weeks). The magnitude of the relevance value might be restricted in various embodiments.

In other embodiments, the score for each product may be exposed to customers in lieu of or in addition to an average product rating. The computed scores might also be utilized for other back-end calculations. For example, the score for a product might be compared to the average rating for the product to determine if a discrepancy exists. If a discrepancy exists, appropriate action might be taken such as notifying customers, performing an analysis of the ratings for the product to determine the cause of the discrepancy, suspending sales of a product, or notifying a product vendor.

In another embodiment, products are not ranked according to product category. In this embodiment, an entire product catalog might be treated as a single set of products with a single prior probability distribution and time decay factor. In other embodiments, a product catalog is divided into divisions, referred to herein as “sets,” that do not necessarily align with product categories. For instance, products might be assigned to sets according to the type of specialty store that would sell each product. A prior probability distribution and time decay factor may then be computed for each set and utilized to compute a score for each product. The products might then be ranked against other products in the same set, category, or other sub-division of products.

In another embodiment, attributes other than a general product rating can be utilized to generate a product ranking. For instance, values for product attributes like performance, ease of use, and others can be utilized to generate a product ranking showing the top ranked products by attribute. Additional details regarding this process and others will be described below.

It should be appreciated that the subject matter presented herein may be implemented as a computer process, a computer-controlled apparatus, a computing system, or an article of manufacture, such as a computer-readable storage medium. These and various other features will become apparent from a reading of the following disclosure and a review of the associated drawings.

While the subject matter described herein is presented in the general context of program modules that execute on one or more computing devices, those skilled in the art will recognize that other implementations may be performed in combination with other types of program modules. Generally, program modules include routines, programs, components, data structures, and other types of structures that perform particular tasks or implement particular abstract data types.

Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the subject matter described herein may be practiced on or in conjunction with other computer system configurations beyond those described below, including multiprocessor systems, microprocessor-based or programmable consumer electronics, minicomputers, mainframe computers, handheld computers, personal digital assistants, electronic book readers, wireless telephone devices, special-purposed hardware devices, network appliances, or the like. The embodiments described herein may also be practiced in distributed computing environments, where tasks are performed by remote processing devices that are linked through a communications network. In a distributed computing environment, program modules may be located in both local and remote memory storage devices.

In the following detailed description, references are made to the accompanying drawings that form a part hereof, and that show, by way of illustration, specific embodiments or examples. The drawings herein are not drawn to scale. Like numerals represent like elements throughout the several figures.

FIG. 1 and the following description are intended to provide a brief, general description of a suitable computing environment in which the embodiments described herein may be implemented. In particular, FIG. 1 is a system and network diagram that shows an illustrative operating environment 100 including several software components for identifying top rated products.

The environment 100 includes a customer 102 that uses a customer computer 104 to access a merchant system 108 across a network 106. The customer 102 may be an individual or entity that desires to purchase one or more products from the online merchant that operates the merchant system 108. The customer computer 104 may be a personal computer (“PC”), a desktop workstation, a laptop, a tablet computer, a notebook, a personal digital assistant (“PDA”), an electronic-book reader, a game console, a set-top box, a consumer electronics device, a server computer, or any other computing device capable of connecting to the network 106 and communicating with the merchant system 108.

The network 106 may be a local-area network (“LAN”), a wide-area network (“WAN”), the Internet, or any other networking topology known in the art that connects the customer computer 104 to the merchant system 108. The merchant system 108 may include a number of application servers 110 that provide various online shopping services to the customer computer 104 over the network 106. The customer 102 may use a client application executing on the customer computer 104 to access and utilize the online shopping services provided by the application servers 110.

In one embodiment the client application is a web browser application, such as the MOZILLA® FIREFOX® web browser from MOZILLA FOUNDATION of Mountain View, Calif. The web browser application exchanges data with the application servers 110 in the merchant system 108 using the hypertext transfer protocol (“HTTP”) over the network 106. The client application might also be a stand-alone client application configured for communicating with the application servers 110. The client application might also utilize any number of communication methods known in the art to communicate with the merchant system 108 and/or the application servers 110 across the network 106, including remote procedure calls, SOAP-based web services, remote file access, proprietary client-server architectures, and the like.

The application servers 110 may execute a number of modules in order to provide the online shopping services to the customer computer 104. The modules may execute on a single application server 110 or in parallel across multiple application servers in the merchant system 108. In addition, each module may consist of a number of subcomponents executing on different application servers 110 or other computing devices in the merchant system 108. The modules may be implemented as software, hardware, or any combination of the two.

According to one embodiment, an online shopping module 112 executes on the application servers 110. The online shopping module 112 provides functionality for the customer 102 to browse and purchase products available from the online merchant that operates the merchant system 108. For instance, the online shopping module 112 may retrieve information regarding a particular product offered for sale by the online merchant from a product database 114, generate a product page 116 containing the product information, and transmit the product page 116 over the network 106 to the client application executing on the client computer 104 for display to the customer 102. Information regarding each product offered for sale might be stored in a product database 114 maintained by the merchant system 108. The products represented in the product database 114 may be organized by categories.

The product page 116 transmitted by the application servers 110 to the client computer 104 may be a web page consisting of hypertext markup language (“HTML”), extensible markup language (“XML”), and/or JAVASCRIPT object notation (“JSON”) that contains the product information along with instructions regarding how the product details are to be displayed on the customer computer 104, for example. It will be appreciated that any number of methods and technologies may be utilized that allow the online shopping module 112 to encode the product information in the product page 116 and send the product page 116 to the customer computer 104 for display to the customer 102. Other information transmitted from the online shopping module 112 to the client computer 104 may be similarly formatted.

According to embodiments, the online shopping module 112 is also configured to provide functionality for allowing the customer 102 to provide a product rating 118. A product rating 118 is a quantitative rating of a product. For instance, the online shopping module 112 may be configured to allow the customer 102 to provide a rating of one to five “stars” for each product. Other scales might also be utilized. The online shopping module 112 stores the product ratings 118 in a ratings database 120 maintained by the merchant system 108. For example, the merchant system 108 might maintain the ratings database 120 using an appropriate database technology or other type of data storage system available to the online shopping module 112.

As will be described in greater detail below, the online shopping module 112 operates in conjunction with a ranking module 122 to identify top rated products in various product categories and to provide a product ranking 126 identifying the top rated products to the customer computer 104. The top rated products are those products in a given product category that have been top rated by customers. Various mechanisms are disclosed herein for identifying the top rated products in a product category.

As will be discussed in greater detail below, the top rated products in each product category can be identified in a manner that takes into account the value and quantity of product ratings and their recency. A product ranking 126 identifying the top rated products can then be displayed to the customer 102 directly, on an appropriate product page 116, through a user interface widget presented on the product page 116 or on another page, or in another manner. The product ranking 126 might also be utilized by other components to sort search results or perform other functions. The product ranking 126 showing the top rated products in a particular category might also be utilized in other ways not disclosed herein.

As will also be described in greater detail below, the ranking module 122 utilizes the product ratings 118 stored in the ratings database 120 to compute a score for each product in each product category. The score is then utilized to rank order the products and to generate the product ranking 126. The ranking module 122 provides the product ranking 126 to the online shopping module 112 for inclusion on the product page 116, for direct transmission to the client computer 104, or for use in another fashion. It should be appreciated that the functionality disclosed herein as being performed by the ranking module 122 might also be performed directly by the online shopping module 112 or by another component. Additional details regarding the embodiments presented herein for identifying top rated products will be provided below with regard to FIGS. 2-13.

Turning now to FIG. 2, additional details will be provided regarding the functionality provided by the merchant system 108 for identifying top rated products. In particular, FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram showing aspects of one mechanism disclosed herein for identifying top rated products.

As discussed briefly above, the product database 114 stores data identifying a number of products 202A-202B offered for sale by the merchant operating the merchant system 108. The products might be organized into product categories. In the example shown in FIG. 2, the products 202A-202B are members of the product category 204.

As also briefly described above, the online shopping module 112 provides functionality for customers of the merchant system 110 to provide a product rating 118 for the products offered for sale. For instance, in the example shown in FIG. 2, the product 202A has received the ratings 118A-118N and the product 202B has received the ratings 118B-118NN (the ratings 118A-118N and 118B-118NN may be referred to herein singularly as a “rating 118” or collectively as “the ratings 118”). The ratings 118 may be stored in the ratings database 120 in the manner described above. It should be appreciated that although a limited number of products 202, ratings 118, and product categories 204 have been illustrated in FIG. 2, the merchant system 108 might maintain many more such products 202, ratings 118, and categories 204.

As also briefly described above, the embodiments disclosed herein provide a mechanism for generating a product ranking 126 that identifies the top rated products in a particular product category 204. In order to generate the product ranking 126, a score 206A-206B is computed for each of the products 202A-202B, respectively, in a product category 204. The scores 206A-206B (which may be referred to herein singularly as a “score 206” or collectively as “the scores 206”) are then provided to a ranking process 208. The ranking process 208 numerically ranks the scores 206 to generate the product ranking 126. As discussed above with regard to FIG. 1, the product ranking 126 might be provided directly to a customer, provided on a product page 116, provided by way of a user interface widget, or provided in another manner. The product ranking 126 might also be utilized to inform or sort search results and in other ways.

In order to compute the scores 206 for products 202 in a given product category 204, a prior probability distribution (“PPD”) 210 of ratings 118 for products 202 in the product category 204 is computed. According to one embodiment, the PPD 210 is computed to minimize the prediction error for the ratings 118 for each product 202 in the product category 204. Details regarding one illustrative mechanism for computing the PPD 210 will be provided below with regard to FIGS. 4A-4B. As will be described in greater detail below with regard to FIG. 5, the PPD 210 might also be modified based upon the number of products in the category 204.

Once the PPD 210 has been computed for the category 204, a score 206 is computed for each product 202 in the product category 204. A score 206A is computed for a particular product 202A by computing a posterior probability distribution 212A for the product 202A. The posterior probability distribution 212A is based upon the PPD 210 for the product category 204 and the actual ratings 118A-118N for the product 202A.

According to one embodiment, the ratings 118A-118N for each product 202 are decayed using a time decay factor 214 for the product category 204. The time decay factor 214 is utilized to decay the ratings 118 for products 202 in a product category 204 as a function of time. For instance, an exponential function might be applied to decay the weight of each rating 118A-118N over time. The time decay factor 214 may be computed by selecting a time decay factor 214 that minimizes a prediction error for the ratings 118 of each product 202 in the product category 204. The time decay factor 214 might also be regularized in embodiments by increasing the prediction error as an inverse function of the magnitude of the time decay factor 214. Details regarding one mechanism disclosed herein for computing the time decay factor 214 for each product 202 will be described below with regard to FIGS. 4A-4B.

The ratings 118A-118N for a product 202A might also be influenced by a relevance value 216A. The relevance value 216A is utilized to modify the magnitude of the ratings 118A-118N for a product in view of the recency of the ratings 118A-118N received for the product 202A. Details regarding several mechanisms disclosed herein for computing the relevance value 216A are provided below with regard to FIGS. 7A-7B.

Once the posterior probability distribution 212A has been computed for a product 202A, a score 206A can be generated for the product 202A. A score 206B is computed for another product 202B in a similar fashion using the posterior probability distribution 212B for that product 212B, the time decay factor 214, and the relevance value 216B for the product 202B.

The score 206 for each of the products 202 is determined by computing a predicted next rating for each product. The predicted next rating for each product 202 is a prediction of what the next rating 118 for each product will be that is based on the posterior probability distribution 212 for each product, as influenced by the time decay factor 214 and the relevance value 216 for the product. Additional details regarding the computation of the score 206 for each product 202 will be provided below with regard to FIG. 6. Once the scores 206 have been computed for each product in the product category 204, the scores 206 are provided to the ranking process 208, which rank orders the scores 206 to generate the product ranking 126. Additional details regarding this process, and others, will be presented below with regard to FIGS. 3-13.

Turning now to FIG. 3, additional details will be provided regarding the embodiments described herein for identifying top rated products. It should be appreciated that the logical operations described herein are implemented (1) as a sequence of computer implemented acts or program modules running on a computing system and/or (2) as interconnected machine logic circuits or circuit modules within the computing system. The implementation is a matter of choice dependent on the performance and other requirements of the computing system. Accordingly, the logical operations described herein with reference to the various FIGURES are referred to variously as operations, structural devices, acts, or modules. These operations, structural devices, acts, and modules may be implemented in software, in firmware, in special purpose digital logic, and any combination thereof. It should also be appreciated that more or fewer operations may be performed than shown in the figures and described herein. These operations may also be performed in parallel, or in a different order than those described herein.

FIG. 3 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine 300 for identifying top rated products, according to one embodiment disclosed herein. In the routine 300 shown in FIG. 3, the top rated products for a single product category 204 are identified. It should be appreciated that the routine 300 might be utilized in a similar fashion to identify the top rated products in multiple categories 204.

The routine 300 begins at operation 302, where the PPD 210 and a time decay factor 214 are computed for the product category 204. One illustrative mechanism for computing the PPD 210 and the time decay factor 214 for a product category 204 will be described below with regard to FIGS. 4A-4B. It should be appreciated that other mechanisms might also be utilized. From operation 302, the routine 300 proceeds to operation 304.

At operation 304, a score 206 is computed for each of the products 202 in the product category 204. The score 206 is computed based, in part, upon the PPD 210 for the category 204, the actual ratings 118 for each product 202, and the time decay factor 214. The score 206 might also be influenced by the relevance value 216 for each product 202. One mechanism for computing the score 206 will be described below with regard to FIG. 6. Additional details regarding the embodiments disclosed herein for modifying the score 206 for each product 202 using the relevance value 216 will be provided below with regard to FIGS. 7A-7B. From operation 304, the routine 300 proceeds to operation 306.

At operation 306, the ranking process 208 is utilized to rank order the scores 206 for each of the products 202 in the product category 204. The output of the ranking process 208 is the product ranking 126. Once the product ranking 126 has been generated, the routine 300 proceeds to operation 308 where the product ranking 126 is displayed, such as to a customer 102 of the merchant system 108. As discussed above, the product ranking 126 might also be utilized in other ways. From operation 308, the routine 300 proceeds to operation 310, where it ends.

FIGS. 4A-4B are flow diagrams showing one illustrative routine 400 disclosed herein in embodiments for computing a PPD 210 and a time decay factor 214 for a product category 204 for use in identifying top rated products. The PPD 210 represents a histogram of the average ratings 118 for products in the product category 204. The time decay factor 214 is computed for a product category 204 and utilized to decay the ratings 118 for each product 202 in the category 204 as a function of time. Each product 202 in the product category 204 begins with a ratings histogram equivalent to the PPD 210. In the routine 400 shown in FIGS. 4A-4B, a hill-climbing algorithm is utilized to identify a PPD 210 and a time decay factor 214 for a product category 204 that minimize a prediction error for the ratings of each product in the product category. It should be appreciated, however, that other mechanisms might also be utilized for computing a PPD 210 and a time decay factor 214 for the product category 204.

In one implementation, the effect of the ratings 118 changing over time is addressed by applying an exponential time decay to the weight that each rating 118 has. In this example, the time decay factor 214 represents a “half life” for the exponential time decay. For example, if a product category 204 is determined to have a rating half life of one year, a rating 118 on a product 202 in that category 204 that is one year old will be worth one half of a rating 118 submitted today. A rating 118 from two years ago would be worth one quarter of a rating 118 submitted today, and so on. In the embodiment shown in FIGS. 4A-4B, the PPD 210 and the time decay factor 214 are computed at the same time. In other embodiments, these factors might be computed separately. These values might also be assigned to each product category 204 manually.

The routine 400 begins at operation 402 where an initial prior probability distribution is specified for the product category 204. The initial prior probability distribution sets a baseline for the hill-climbing algorithm and may be specified arbitrarily, based upon an estimate of the prior probability distribution 210 for the product category 204, or in another fashion. Once the initial prior probability distribution has been specified, the routine 400 proceeds from operation 402 to operation 404.

At operation 404, an initial time decay factor is specified for the product category 204. The initial time decay factor sets a baseline for the hill-climbing algorithm and may be specified arbitrarily, based upon an estimate of the time decay factor 214 for the product category 204, or in another fashion. Once the initial time decay factor has been specified, the routine 400 proceeds from operation 404 to operation 406.

At operation 406, a variable is initialized that is utilized to keep track of the current product in the product category 204. The variable is initially set to the first product in the product category 204. From operation 406, the routine 400 proceeds to operation 408, where the actual ratings for the product category 204 are modified to reflect the risk averse nature of customers. This accounts for the fact that in a well-rated category, such as digital single lens reflex cameras, a new product with zero ratings will have a relatively high prior probability distribution 210. However, when consumers view a camera with zero ratings, they typically view the product as having a certain amount of risk associated with its purchase because no product ratings have actually been received.

In one embodiment, a certain amount of noise is added to the actual ratings for the product in order to reflect the risk averse nature of customers. For instance, a certain number of reviews having an average of a 3 star rating might be added to the actual ratings for the product. Because customer reviews tend toward high ratings, this serves to reduce the prior probability distribution 210 to reflect the risk averseness of customers. It should be appreciated that this operation is optional and that this operation might be performed using other mechanisms.

From operation 408, the routine 400 proceeds to operation 410, where another variable is initialized that is utilized to keep track of the current rating under consideration. This variable is initialized at operation 410 to the first rating for the current product in the product category 204. From operation 410, the routine 400 proceeds to operation 412.

At operation 412, the current rating is decayed utilizing the current time decay factor. As discussed above, for instance, if the current time decay factor is one year, the current rating will be decayed by one half if the rating is one year old in one embodiment. Once the current rating has been decayed by the current time decay factor, the decayed rating is added to the prior probability distribution. The routine 400 then proceeds from operation 412 to operation 414.

At operation 414, a predicted next rating is computed for the current product. In order to compute the predicted next rating, the average rating from the initial prior probability distribution is calculated. For instance, the initial prior probability distribution for a category 204 might be two 1 star ratings, three 2 star ratings, four 3 star ratings, three 4 star ratings, and one 5 star rating. In this case the predicted next rating is computed by applying the appropriate weights to the ratings in the initial prior probability distribution and taking the average of the sum of the weighted values. In the example given above, the predicted next rating for the product is 2.846. (i.e. (2*1+3*2+4*3+3*4+1*5)/13 ratings=2.846). Once the predicted next rating for the current product and current rating has been computed, the routine 400 proceeds to operation 416.

At operation 416, a prediction error is computed for the current product and the current rating by subtracting the predicted next rating from the actual current rating for the current product. In the example given above, the prediction error is 0.154 if the current rating for the current product is 3 stars (i.e. 3−2.846=0.154). The prediction error for the current rating and the current product is added to any previous prediction error computed for other ratings in the same category using the same initial prior probability distribution and time decay factor. From operation 416, the routine 400 proceeds to operation 418.

At operation 418, a determination is made as to whether there are any more ratings 118 for the current product 202. If so, the routine 400 proceeds from operation 418 to operation 420 where the variable utilized to identify the current rating 118 is incremented to identify the next rating 118 for the current product 202. From operation 420, the routine 400 proceeds to operation 412, where the next rating is decayed and the prediction error is updated in the manner described above. This process continues until there are no more ratings 118 for the current product 202.

When there are no remaining ratings 118 for the current product 202, the routine 400 proceeds from operation 418 to operation 422. At operation 422, a determination is made as to whether there are more products 202 in the product category 204. If so, the routine 400 proceeds from operation 422 to operation 424.

At operation 424, the variable utilized to identify the current product 202 is incremented to identify the next product 202 in the product category 204. The routine 400 then proceeds from operation 424 to operation 408, where the operations described above are repeated in order to update the prediction error in view of the ratings 118 for the next product 202.

If there are no remaining products 202 in the product category 204 to be processed, the routine 400 proceeds from operation 422 to operation 425, shown in FIG. 4B. At operation 425, regularization penalties might be added to the predicted error. For instance, in one embodiment the current time decay factor is regularized. Regularization of the time decay factor refers to a process of increasing the prediction error computed for a particular time decay factor as an inverse function of the magnitude of the time decay factor. In one embodiment, the smaller the time decay factor, the greater the increase that is applied to the computed prediction error. It should be appreciated that the regularization of the time decay factor is optional and may not be performed in all embodiments. Additionally, regularization might also be performed on the magnitude of the prior probability distribution. From operation 425, the routine 400 proceeds to operation 426.

At operation 426, the current prior probability distribution, time decay factor, and the computed prediction error are stored for later comparison to the prediction error computed for other prior probability distributions and time decay factors. The routine 400 then proceeds to operation 428, where a determination is made as to whether other prior probability distributions and/or time decay factors remain to be tested. If so, the routine 400 proceeds from operation 428 to operation 430 where the initial prior probability distribution and/or time decay factor are modified. For instance, the initial prior probability distribution and/or time decay factor may be incremented. The prediction error is also reset to zero at operation 430. The routine 400 then proceeds from operation 430 to operation 406 where the prediction error for the modified prior probability distribution and time decay factor is computed in the manner described above.

If no additional prior probability distributions or time decay factors remain, the routine 400 proceeds from operation 428 to operation 432. At operation 432, the prior probability distribution and time decay factor that minimize the prediction error for all of the ratings 118 for all of the products 202 in the product category 204 are selected as the prior probability distribution 210 and time decay factor 214 for the product category 204. The routine 400 then proceeds to operation 434, where it ends. It should be appreciated that the process illustrated in FIGS. 4A-4B for computing the prior probability distribution 210 and time decay factor 214 for a product category 204 is merely illustrative and that other mechanisms might be utilized with the embodiments disclosed herein.

FIG. 5 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine 500 disclosed herein for modifying a prior probability distribution 210 for a product category 204 based upon the number of products 202 in the product category 204. The routine 500 shown in FIG. 5 might be utilized to modify the computed prior probability distribution 210 for product categories 204 having a small number of products 202 and/or a small number of ratings 118. For instance, if a product category 204 only has one 5 star rating 118, the predicted next rating for all products in the category would be 5 stars, which may be unrealistic. The routine 500 shown in FIG. 5 is utilized to provide a more realistic prior probability distribution 210 for product categories 204 that have few products 202 and/or ratings 118.

The routine 500 begins at operation 502, where the prior probability distribution 210 for the product category 204 is computed in the manner described above with regard to FIGS. 4A-4B. Once the prior probability distribution 210 has been computed, the routine 500 proceeds to operation 504 where a default prior probability distribution is computed for the product category 204. In one embodiment, the default prior probability distribution 210 is computed as the average of all of the ratings 118 for all of the products 202 in all of the product categories 204. In other embodiments, the default prior probability distribution 210 is computed in another manner or specified manually. As will be described in greater detail below, the prior probability distribution 210 is skewed toward the default prior probability distribution 210 depending upon the number of products 202 in the product category 204.

Once the default prior probability distribution 210 has been computed or assigned at operation 504, the routine 500 proceeds to operation 506. At operation 506, a weight is applied to the computed prior probability distribution 210 that is based upon the actual number of products in the product category 204. In one embodiment, the weight is one (i.e. no weight) when the product category 204 has two hundred or more products. If the product category 204 has fewer than two hundred products, the weight is increased inversely to the number of products 202 in the category. In this manner, a product category 204 with only one product would have a higher weight than a product category 204 with 150 products. It should be appreciated that the examples given above are merely illustrative and that the weight given to the computed prior probability distribution 210 might be varied in other ways. Additionally, in other embodiments, an appropriate weight might be applied to the default prior probability distribution 210 for a category rather than to the computed prior probability distribution 210.

From operation 506 the routine 500 proceeds to operation 508, where an average is calculated of the weighted computed prior probability distribution 210 and the default prior probability distribution 210 that was computed at operations 454 and 456. The calculated average is utilized as the prior probability distribution 210 for the product category 204 at operation 510. The routine 500 then proceeds to operation 512, where it ends.

It should be appreciated that the mechanism illustrated in FIG. 5 causes the prior probability distribution 210 for a product category 204 with very few products 202 and/or ratings 118 to skew highly toward the default prior probability distribution 210. For product categories 204 with a larger number of products 202 and/or ratings 118, the process shown in FIG. 5 will have little effect on the prior probability distribution 210.

FIG. 6 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine 600 for computing a score 206 for a product 202 for use in identifying top rated products according to one embodiment disclosed herein. The routine 600 begins at operation 602, where the prior probability distribution 210 for the product category 204 is retrieved. The time decay factor 214 is also retrieved at operation 602. From operation 602, the routine 600 proceeds to operation 604.

At operation 604, the ratings 118 for the product 202 for which a score 206 is being computed are identified. Once the ratings 118 have been identified, the routine 600 proceeds to operation 606 where each rating 118 is decayed using the time decay factor 214 for the product category 204 in the manner described above. Once the ratings 118 have been decayed, the routine 600 proceeds to operation 608 where the ratings are modified based upon the current relevance of the product using the relevance value 216 in one embodiment. Several illustrative mechanisms will be described below with reference to FIGS. 7A-7B for computing the relevance value 216 and modifying the ratings for the current product. From operation 608, the routine 600 proceeds to operation 610.

At operation 610, the modified product ratings 118 for the current product 202 are added to the prior probability distribution 210 to generate a posterior probability distribution 212 for the product. The routine 600 then proceeds to operation 612, where a predicted next rating is computed for the current product. The predicted next rating is computed based upon the average rating in the posterior probability distribution 212 for the product 202. The predicted next rating for the current product 202 is utilized as the score 206 for the product at operation 614. From operation 614, the routine 600 proceeds to operation 616, where it ends.

FIG. 7A is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine 700 for modifying a posterior probability distribution 212 based upon the relevance of a product 202 according to one embodiment disclosed herein. As discussed above, a relevance value 216 might be computed for each product 202 and utilized to modify the ratings 118 for the product 202 in view of the recency of the ratings 118. FIG. 7A shows one illustrative process for computing the relevance value 216 and for utilizing the computed relevance value 216 to modify the ratings 118 for the product 202.

The routine 700 begins at operation 702, where a current rating velocity is computed for the current product 202. The current rating velocity is the number of ratings 118 received for the product 202 in a recent time period, such as during the last month. Once the current rating velocity has been computed, the routine 700 proceeds to operation 704, where an average rating velocity is computed for the product 202. The average rating velocity is the average number of ratings 118 received per time period for the product during its lifetime. For instance, if a product has been available from the merchant system 108 for one year and has received 48 ratings, the average rating velocity for the product 202 is four (48 ratings/12 months=4 ratings per month on average).

Once the average rating velocity and the current rating velocity have been computed, the routine 700 proceeds from operation 704 to operation 706. At operation 706, the relevance value 216 for the product 202 is computed as the ratio of the average rating velocity and the current rating velocity. Continuing the example given above, a product 202 with a current rating velocity of two and an average rating velocity of four would have a relevance value of one-half.

From operation 706, the routine 700 proceeds to operation 708, where the ratings 118 for the product 202 are modified by multiplying the ratings 118 by the computed relevance value 216. In one embodiment, the ratings 118 are multiplied by the relevance value 216 after application of the time decay factor 214 to the ratings 118 in the manner described above. From operation 708, the routine 700 proceeds to operation 710, where it ends.

FIG. 7B shows a routine 750 illustrating a second mechanism for computing the relevance value 216 for a product. The routine 750 begins at operation 752, where the average rating velocity for the product 202 is calculated in the manner described above. The routine 750 then proceeds to operation 754, where an expected number of ratings for the product 202 during a previous time period is computed based upon the average rating velocity. At operation 756, an amount of time necessary for the product 202 to actually receive the expected number of ratings 118 is determined.

The routine 750 then proceeds to operation 758, where the relevance value 216 is computed as a ratio of the amount of time during the previous time period and the amount of time actually taken for the product 202 to receive the expected number of ratings 118. For instance, if the average rating velocity of a product 202 is four ratings per month, then the product 202 would be expected to receive four ratings 118 during the previous month. If it actually took the product 202 six weeks to obtain four ratings 118 then the relevance value 216 for the product is two-thirds (four weeks divided by six weeks). The magnitude of the relevance value 216 might also be restricted in various embodiments.

From operation 758, the routine 750 proceeds to operation 760, where the ratings 118 for the product 202 are modified by multiplying the ratings 118 by the computed relevance value 216. The ratings 118 may be multiplied by the relevance value 216 after application of the time decay factor 214 to the ratings 118 in the manner described above. From operation 760, the routine 750 proceeds to operation 762, where it ends.

FIG. 8 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine 800 for computing a score 206 for a product 202 assigned to multiple product categories 204 according to one embodiment disclosed herein. In some implementations of the merchant system 108, individual products 202 are assigned to multiple product categories 204. For instance, a handheld mixer might be assigned to a category 204 for electric mixers and a category 204 for kitchen appliances. FIG. 8 illustrates one process for computing a score for a product 202 that is assigned to two or more categories 204 in this manner.

The routine 800 begins at operation 802, where a variable for storing an indicator of the current product category 204 is initialized to the first product category 204 that the product 202 is assigned to. The routine 800 then proceeds to operation 804, where a score 206 is computed for the current product 202 with reference to the current product category 204 in the manner described above with regard to FIG. 6. In particular, the prior probability distribution 210 and the time decay factor 214 for the current product category 204 are utilized to compute the score 206 for the product. From operation 804, the routine 800 proceeds to operation 806.

At operation 806, a determination is made as to whether the product 202 is assigned to more categories. If so, the routine 800 proceeds from operation 806 to operation 808 where the variable identifying the current category 204 is incremented to the next category 204 that the product 202 is assigned to. The routine 800 then proceeds from operation 808 to operation 804 where the score 206 is computed for the product 202 in the next category 204.

If scores 206 have been computed for the product 202 in all of the categories that the product is assigned to, the routine 800 proceeds from operation 806 to operation 810. At operation 810, the lowest score computed for the product 202 in all of the product categories 204 to which the product 202 is assigned is utilized as the score 206 for the product. From operation 810, the routine 800 proceeds to operation 812, where it ends.

FIG. 9 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine 900 for computing and displaying a likely next rating score for a product 202 according to one embodiment disclosed herein. In this embodiment, the scores 206 are displayed to the customer 102. The scores 206 for each product 202 may be displayed in lieu of or in addition to an average rating for the product 202. The scores 206 might also be displayed to the customer 102 separately from or in conjunction with the product ranking 126.

The routine 900 begins at operation 902, where the prior probability distribution 210 and the time decay factor 214 are computed for a product category 204 in the manner described above with regard to FIGS. 4A-4B. Once the prior probability distribution 210 and the time decay factor 214 have been computed, the routine 900 proceeds to operation 904.

At operation 904, a likely next rating score 206 is computed for each product 202 in the product category 204 using the prior probability distribution 210, the actual product ratings 118, the time decay factor 214, and the relevance value 216. One illustrative routine for computing the score 206 was described above with regard to FIG. 6. Once the score 206 has been calculated for each product, the routine 900 proceeds from operation 904 to operation 906.

At operation 906, the computed likely next rating score 206 is displayed to the customer 102. As discussed above, the score 206 might be included on a product page 116 and might be displayed in conjunction with or separately from an average rating for the product. The score 206 might also be displayed in conjunction with the product ranking 126. From operation 906, the routine 900 proceeds to operation 908, where it ends.

FIG. 10 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine 1000 for identifying and addressing rating discrepancies according to one embodiment disclosed herein. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 10, a score 206 is computed for each product 202 in the manner described above, and the score is utilized to identify discrepancies in the ratings 118. Appropriate action might be taken in response to identifying a discrepancy, such as alerting customers to the discrepancy, subjecting the product ratings 118 to a detailed review in an attempt to determine the cause of the discrepancy, suspending sales of a product, alerting a product vendor or administrator, or taking other actions. In certain implementations, action might only be taken if the discrepancy exceeds a set threshold. It should be appreciated that the scores 206 might also be utilized by the merchant system 108 for other types of back-end computations.

The routine 1000 begins at operation 1002 where the prior probability distribution 210 and the time decay factor 214 are computed for a product category 204 in the manner described above with regard to FIGS. 4A-4B. Once the prior probability distribution 210 and the time decay factor 214 have been computed, the routine 900 proceeds to operation 1004 where a score 206 is computed for each product in the product category 204 using the prior probability distribution 210, the actual product ratings 118, the time decay factor 214, and the relevance value 216. One illustrative routine for computing the score 206 was described above with regard to FIG. 6. Once the score 206 has been calculated for each product 202, the routine 1000 proceeds from operation 1004 to operation 1006.

At operation 1006, the computed likely next rating score 206 for each product 202 is compared to the average of the ratings 118 for the product 202. A determination is then made at operation 1008 as to whether a discrepancy exists between the score 206 for the product 202 and the average rating of the product 202. For instance, a discrepancy might be identified if the score 206 and the average rating for the product 202 are significantly different. If no discrepancy is identified, the routine 1000 proceeds to operation 1012, where it ends.

If a discrepancy is identified between the score 206 and the average rating for a product, the routine 1000 proceeds from operation 1008 to operation 1010. At operation 1010, action is taken in response to detecting the discrepancy. For instance, as mentioned briefly above, customers might be alerted to the discrepancy in an appropriate fashion, the ratings 118 for the product might be subjected to a detailed review and analysis, and/or a product vendor or administrator of the merchant system 108 might be alerted. Other types of actions might also be taken. Once appropriate action has been taken, the routine 1000 proceeds from operation 1010 to operation 1012, where it ends.

FIG. 11 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine 1100 for ranking products based upon scores computed for sets of products according to one embodiment disclosed herein. The embodiments disclosed herein have been primarily described in the context of ranking a set of products 202 within a product category 204. It should be appreciated, however, that the disclosure provided herein is not limited to ranking products in this manner. For instance, products might be ranked within sub-categories or other types of divisions. In another embodiment, an entire catalog of products might be ranked without reference to the categories that each product is assigned to.

In the embodiment illustrated in FIG. 11, products 202 in a product catalog are grouped into sets for ranking. The term “sets” as used herein refers to a collection of products 202 that do not necessarily align with particular product categories 204. For example, in one embodiment, the products 202 in a product catalog are divided according to the type of store that would sell a particular product 202. Electronics-related products might be sold by an electronics store, a variety of home and garden products might be sold by a home and garden store, and books and related items might be sold by a book store, for instance. Other arbitrary and specific groupings of products 202 might also be utilized.

Once the products have been divided into sets as described above, a time decay factor 214 and prior probability distribution 210 might be computed for each set of products 202. Those values are then utilized when computing the score 206 for each product 202. Once the scores 206 have been computed, the products 202 might be ranked against other products 202 in the same set, might be ranked against other products 202 in the same category or sub-category, might be ranked against other products 202 in the product catalog, or in another fashion. This process is illustrated in FIG. 11.

The routine 1100 begins at operation 1102, where products 202 are divided into sets. As discussed above, the sets might correspond to stores or other types of divisions within a product catalog. Once the products 202 have been divided into sets, the routine 1100 proceeds from operation 1102 to operation 1104.

At operation 1104, the prior probability distribution 210 and the time decay factor 214 are computed for a set of products in a manner similar to that described above with regard to FIGS. 4A-4B. Once the prior probability distribution 210 and the time decay factor 214 have been computed for the set, the routine 1100 proceeds to operation 1106 where a likely next rating score 206 is computed for each product in the set using the prior probability distribution 210, the actual product ratings 118, the time decay factor 214, and the relevance value 216 for the set. A mechanism similar to that described above with regard to FIG. 6 might be utilized to compute the score 206. Once the score 206 has been calculated for each product in the set, the routine 1100 proceeds from operation 1106 to operation 1108.

At operation 1108, the products in each set are ranked against other products in the same product category 204 using the scores 206 computed at operation 1106. The routine 1100 then proceeds to operation 1110, where the top ranked products 202 are then displayed in the manner described above. From operation 1110, the routine 1100 proceeds to operation 1112, where it ends.

FIG. 12 is a flow diagram showing one illustrative routine 1200 for identifying top rated products by attributes other than product ratings, according to one embodiment disclosed herein. In the embodiments described above, the score 206 for each product 202 is computed based upon general quantitative customer ratings 118 for each product. It should be appreciated, however, that the score 206 might be computed based upon values associated with other product attributes. For instance, an appropriate mechanism might be provided that allows customers to rate specific attributes of each product separately from an overall rating. For example, a customer might give a blender 5-stars for ease of use, but 2-stars for ease of cleaning. In this manner, the top rated products might be identified and displayed based upon virtually any attribute of a product, such as performance or other specifications of the product, ease of use, lifespan, and others. FIG. 12 describes this process in greater detail.

The routine 1200 begins at operation 1202 where a product attribute to be utilized for generating the score 206 is identified. As discussed briefly above, the attribute might be related to the performance of a product, technical specifications, ease of operation, lifespan, or virtually any other type of product attributes. Once the attribute has been selected, the routine 1200 proceeds to operation 1204.

At operation 1204, a time decay factor 214 and prior probability distribution 210 is computed for a product category 204 or set of products 202 utilizing values for the selected attribute. For instance, if the selected attribute relates to ease of use of a product, the customer ratings regarding ease of use might be utilized to compute the prior probability distribution and the time decay factor. Once the prior probability distribution 210 and time decay factor 214 have been computed, the routine 1200 proceeds to operation 1216.

At operation 1206, a likely next rating score 206 is computed for each product 202 in the product category 204 or set using the prior probability distribution 210, the actual values for the specified product attribute, the time decay factor 214, and the relevance value 216 for the category or set. A mechanism similar to that described above with regard to FIG. 6 might be utilized to compute the score 206. Once the score 206 has been calculated for each product 202 in the product category 204 or set, the routine 1200 proceeds from operation 1206 to operation 1208.

At operation 1208, the products 202 in the category or set are ranked according to the computed scores 206. The routine 1200 then proceeds to operation 1210, where a product ranking 126 might be displayed. In this embodiment, the top ranked products are those products that have the highest ratings for the product attribute selected at operation 1202. From operation 1210, the routine 1200 proceeds to operation 1212, where it ends.

FIG. 13 shows an example computer architecture for a computer 1300 capable of executing the software components described herein for identifying top rated products in the manner presented above. The computer architecture 1300 shown in FIG. 13 illustrates a conventional server computer, workstation, desktop computer, laptop, PDA, electronic book reader, digital wireless phone, network appliance, set-top box, or other computing device, and may be utilized to execute any aspects of the software components presented herein described as executing on the application servers 110, the customer computer 104, or other computing platform.

The computer 1300 includes a baseboard, or “motherboard,” which is a printed circuit board to which a multitude of components or devices may be connected by way of a system bus or other electrical communication paths. In one illustrative embodiment, one or more central processing units (“CPUs”) 1302 operate in conjunction with a chipset 1304. The CPUs 1302 are standard programmable processors that perform arithmetic and logical operations necessary for the operation of the computer 1300.

The CPUs 1302 perform operations by transitioning from one discrete, physical state to the next through the manipulation of switching elements that differentiate between and change these states. Switching elements may generally include electronic circuits that maintain one of two binary states, such as flip-flops, and electronic circuits that provide an output state based on the logical combination of the states of one or more other switching elements, such as logic gates. These basic switching elements may be combined to create more complex logic circuits, including registers, adders-subtractors, arithmetic logic units, floating-point units, or the like.

The chipset 1304 provides an interface between the CPUs 1302 and the remainder of the components and devices on the baseboard. The chipset 1304 may provide an interface to a random access memory (“RAM”) 1306, used as the main memory in the computer 1300. The chipset 1304 may further provide an interface to a computer-readable storage medium such as a read-only memory (“ROM”) 1308 or non-volatile RAM (“NVRAM”) for storing basic routines that help to startup the computer 1300 and to transfer information between the various components and devices. The ROM 1308 or NVRAM may also store other software components necessary for the operation of the computer 1300 in accordance with the embodiments described herein.

According to various embodiments, the computer 1300 may operate in a networked environment using logical connections to remote computing devices and computer systems through a network, such as a local-area network (“LAN”), a wide-area network (“WAN”), the Internet, or any other networking topology known in the art that connects the computer 1300 to remote computers. The chipset 1304 includes functionality for providing network connectivity through a network interface controller (“NIC”) 1310, such as a gigabit Ethernet adapter. For example, the NIC 1310 may be capable of connecting the computer 1300 to other computing devices, such as the application servers 110, the customer computer 104, a data storage system in the merchant system 108, and the like, over the network 106 described above in regard to FIG. 1. It should be appreciated that multiple NICs 1310 may be present in the computer 1300, connecting the computer to other types of networks and remote computer systems.

The computer 1300 may be connected to a mass storage device 1312 that provides non-volatile storage for the computer. The mass storage device 1312 may store system programs, application programs, other program modules, and data, which have been described in greater detail herein. The mass storage device 1312 may be connected to the computer 1300 through a storage controller 1314 connected to the chipset 1304. The mass storage device 1312 may consist of one or more physical storage units. The storage controller 1314 may interface with the physical storage units through a serial attached SCSI (“SAS”) interface, a serial advanced technology attachment (“SATA”) interface, a FIBRE CHANNEL (“FC”) interface, or other standard interface for physically connecting and transferring data between computers and physical storage devices.

The computer 1300 may store data on the mass storage device 1312 by transforming the physical state of the physical storage units to reflect the information being stored. The specific transformation of physical state may depend on various factors, in different implementations of this description. Examples of such factors may include, but are not limited to, the technology used to implement the physical storage units, whether the mass storage device 1312 is characterized as primary or secondary storage, or the like. For example, the computer 1300 may store information to the mass storage device 1312 by issuing instructions through the storage controller 1314 to alter the magnetic characteristics of a particular location within a magnetic disk drive unit, the reflective or refractive characteristics of a particular location in an optical storage unit, or the electrical characteristics of a particular capacitor, transistor, or other discrete component in a solid-state storage unit. Other transformations of physical media are possible without departing from the scope and spirit of the present description, with the foregoing examples provided only to facilitate this description. The computer 1300 may further read information from the mass storage device 1312 by detecting the physical states or characteristics of one or more particular locations within the physical storage units.

In addition to the mass storage device 1312 described above, the computer 1300 might have access to other computer-readable media to store and retrieve information, such as program modules, data structures, or other data. It should be appreciated by those skilled in the art that computer-readable media can be any available media that may be accessed by the computer 1300, including computer-readable storage media and communications media. Communications media includes transitory signals. Computer-readable storage media includes volatile and non-volatile, removable and non-removable storage media implemented in any method or technology. For example, computer-readable storage media includes, but is not limited to, RAM, ROM, erasable programmable ROM (“EPROM”), electrically-erasable programmable ROM (“EEPROM”), flash memory or other solid-state memory technology, compact disc ROM (“CD-ROM”), digital versatile disk (“DVD”), high definition DVD (“HD-DVD”), BLU-RAY, or other optical storage, magnetic cassettes, magnetic tape, magnetic disk storage or other magnetic storage devices, or any other medium that can be used to store the desired information. Computer-readable storage media does not include transitory signals.

The mass storage device 1312 may store an operating system 1316 utilized to control the operation of the computer 1300. According to one embodiment, the operating system comprises the LINUX operating system. According to another embodiment, the operating system comprises the WINDOWS® SERVER operating system from MICROSOFT Corporation of Redmond, Wash. According to further embodiments, the operating system may comprise the UNIX or SOLARIS operating systems. It should be appreciated that other operating systems may also be utilized. The mass storage device 1312 may store other system or application programs and data utilized by the computer 1300, such as the online shopping module 112 and/or the ranking module 122, both of which were described above.

In one embodiment, the mass storage device 1312 or other computer-readable storage media may be encoded with computer-executable instructions that, when loaded into the computer 1300, transform the computer from a general-purpose computing system into a special-purpose computer capable of implementing the embodiments described herein. These computer-executable instructions transform the computer 1300 by specifying how the CPUs 1302 transition between states, as described above. According to one embodiment, the computer 1300 has access to computer-readable storage media storing computer-executable instructions that, when executed by the computer, perform the various routines and operations described herein.

The computer 1300 may also include an input/output controller 1318 for receiving and processing input from a number of input devices, such as a keyboard, a mouse, a touchpad, a touch screen, an electronic stylus, or other type of input device. Similarly, the input/output controller 1318 may provide output to a display device, such as a computer monitor, a flat-panel display, a digital projector, a printer, a plotter, or other type of output device. It will be appreciated that the computer 1300 may not include all of the components shown in FIG. 13, may include other components that are not explicitly shown in FIG. 13, or may utilize an architecture completely different than that shown in FIG. 13.

Based on the foregoing, it should be appreciated that technologies for identifying top rated products have been presented herein. Although the subject matter presented herein has been described in language specific to computer structural features, methodological acts, and computer readable media, it is to be understood that the invention defined in the appended claims is not necessarily limited to the specific features, acts, or media described herein. Rather, the specific features, acts, and mediums are disclosed as example forms of implementing the claims.

The subject matter described above is provided by way of illustration only and should not be construed as limiting. Furthermore, the claimed subject matter is not limited to implementations that solve any or all disadvantages noted in any part of this disclosure. Various modifications and changes may be made to the subject matter described herein without following the example embodiments and applications illustrated and described, and without departing from the true spirit and scope of the present invention, which is set forth in the following claims.

Claims

1. A system for ranking, computing and displaying a likely next rating for a product, the system comprising:

a merchant system comprising one or more application servers; and

an online shopping module executing on the one or more application servers configured to maintain data identifying a plurality of products, to maintain data indicating which of a plurality of categories each of the products is assigned to, to receive and maintain ratings for each of the products, and to

compute a time decay factor for each product category,

compute a relevance value for each product in each product category,

compute a likely next rating score for each of the products in each product category based upon one or more of the time decay factor and the relevance value, and to

cause the likely next rating score for at least one of the products to be displayed.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein the online shopping module is further configured to cause an average rating for a product to be displayed in conjunction with the likely next rating score.

3. The system of claim 1, wherein compute a time decay factor for each product category comprises computing a time decay factor for each category that minimizes a prediction error for the ratings for each product in each product category.

4. The system of claim 3, wherein compute a relevance value for each product in each product category comprises:

computing a current rating velocity for each product;

computing an average rating velocity for each product; and

computing the relevance value as a ratio of the average rating velocity and the current rating velocity.

5. The system of claim 3, wherein compute a relevance value for each product in a product category comprises:

computing an average rating velocity for each product;

determining an expected number of ratings for each product during a previous time period based on the average rating velocity;

determining an amount of time taken for each product to actually receive the expected number of ratings; and

computing the relevance value for each product as a ratio of the amount of time during the previous time period and the amount of time taken for the product to receive the expected number of ratings.

6. The system of claim 3, wherein compute a likely next rating score for each of the products in the product category further comprises:

computing a prior probability distribution for each product category based upon ratings of the products in the product category;

decaying the ratings for each of the products using a time decay factor;

modifying the decayed ratings using the relevance value for the product;

computing a posterior probability distribution for each product in each category based upon the prior probability distribution for the category and the ratings for each product as decayed by the time decay factor and modified by the relevance value; and

computing the likely next rating score for each of the products in each product category by computing a predicted next rating for each product in each product category based upon the posterior probability distribution for each product.

7. The system of claim 6, wherein computing a prior probability distribution for each product category comprises computing a prior probability distribution for each category that minimizes the prediction error for the ratings for each product in the product category.

8. A computer-implemented method for ranking, computing and displaying a likely next rating for a product, the method comprising performing computer-implemented operations for:

maintaining data identifying a plurality of products by way of one or more computing systems;

maintaining data by way of one or more computing systems indicating which of a plurality of categories each of the plurality of products is assigned to;

receiving and maintaining ratings for each of the products;

computing a time decay factor for each product category;

computing a relevance value for each product in each product category;

computing, by way of one or more systems, a likely next rating score for each of the products in each product category based upon one or more of the time decay factor and the relevance value; and

presenting the likely next rating score for at least one of the products.

9. The computer-implemented method of claim 8, further comprising presenting an average rating for a product in conjunction with the likely next rating score.

10. The computer-implemented method of claim 8, wherein computing a time decay factor for each product category comprises computing a time decay factor for each category that minimizes a prediction error for the ratings for each product in each product category.

11. The computer-implemented method of claim 10, wherein computing a relevance value for each product in each product category comprises:

computing a current rating velocity for each product;

computing an average rating velocity for each product; and

computing the relevance value as a ratio of the average rating velocity and the current rating velocity.

12. The computer-implemented method of claim 10, wherein computing a relevance value for each product in a product category comprises:

computing an average rating velocity for each product;

determining an expected number of ratings for each product during a previous time period based on the average rating velocity;

determining an amount of time taken for each product to actually receive the expected number of ratings; and

computing the relevance value for each product as a ratio of the amount of time during the previous time period and the amount of time taken for the product to receive the expected number of ratings.

13. The computer-implemented method of claim 10, wherein computing a likely next rating score for each of the products in the product category further comprises:

computing a prior probability distribution for each product category based upon ratings of the products in the product category;

decaying the ratings for each of the products using a time decay factor;

modifying the decayed ratings using the relevance value for the product;

computing a posterior probability distribution for each product in each category based upon the prior probability distribution for the category and the ratings for each product as decayed by the time decay factor and modified by the relevance value; and

computing the likely next rating score for each of the products in each product category by computing a predicted next rating for each product in each product category based upon the posterior probability distribution for each product.

14. The computer-implemented method of claim 13, wherein computing a prior probability distribution for each product category comprises computing a prior probability distribution for each category that minimizes the prediction error for the ratings for each product in the product category.

15. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having computer-executable instructions stored thereupon which, when executed by a computer, cause the computer to:

maintain data identifying a plurality of products;

maintain data indicating which of a plurality of categories each of the plurality of products is assigned to;

maintain ratings for each of the products;

compute a time decay factor for each product category;

compute a relevance value for each product in each product category;

compute a likely next rating score for each of the products in each product category based upon one or more of the time decay factor and the relevance value; and

present the likely next rating score for at least one of the products.

16. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, having further computer-executable instructions stored thereupon which, when executed by the computer, cause the computer to present an average rating for a product in conjunction with the likely next rating score.

17. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, wherein compute a time decay factor for each product category comprises computing a time decay factor for each category that minimizes a prediction error for the ratings for each product in each product category.

18. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 17, wherein compute a relevance value for each product in each product category comprises:

computing a current rating velocity for each product;

computing an average rating velocity for each product; and

computing the relevance value as a ratio of the average rating velocity and the current rating velocity.

19. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 17, wherein compute a relevance value for each product in a product category comprises:

computing an average rating velocity for each product;

determining an expected number of ratings for each product during a previous time period based on the average rating velocity;

determining an amount of time taken for each product to actually receive the expected number of ratings; and

computing the relevance value for each product as a ratio of the amount of time during the previous time period and the amount of time taken for the product to receive the expected number of ratings.

20. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 17, wherein compute a likely next rating score for each of the products in the product category further comprises:

computing a prior probability distribution for each product category based upon ratings of the products in the product category;

decaying the ratings for each of the products using a time decay factor;

modifying the decayed ratings using the relevance value for the product;

computing a posterior probability distribution for each product in each category based upon the prior probability distribution for the category and the ratings for each product as decayed by the time decay factor and modified by the relevance value; and

computing the likely next rating score for each of the products in each product category by computing a predicted next rating for each product in each product category based upon the posterior probability distribution for each product.

21. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 20, wherein compute a prior probability distribution for each product category comprises computing a prior probability distribution for each category that minimizes the prediction error for the ratings for each product in the product category.